Australian Open 2023, 3rd Round, Thursday, 20.01.2023
When the world number 17 meets the world number 20, a 3rd round is actually still far too bad for the duel. But the draw wants it that way, at the Australian Open 2023 we get to see an absolute top duel quite early.
Karen Khachanov and Frances Tiafoe will meet, both have shown their very best matches in Melbourne very rarely. On Friday night, the bookmakers see a slight Russian advantage, Khachanov is also narrowly ahead at Happybet.
Why I would rather give the US player the benefit of the doubt and why I am almost certain that we can expect a very close match, I will now reveal in my Khachanov Tiafoe tip.
Karen Khachanov and the Australian Open, it’s not the ideal combination so far. The Russian is simply not warming up to the first Grand Slam of the year, and he is anything but proud of his series.
He has never reached the round of 16 in Down Under, and for the past four years he has always been eliminated in the third round. Also because the draw has always given him an absolute top opponent.
Roberto Bautista-Agut, Nick Kyrgios, Matteo Berrettini and Rafael Nadal, this competition was too strong for Khachanov. But when he was eliminated at the AO, he was never without a chance to win.
Four tie-breaks against Kyrgios and three against Berrettini, bad luck stuck to the vice Olympic champion’s heels. This time Khachanov would like to have a bit more luck, the obligatory 3rd round has been reached after all.
A 7-6, 6-2, 6-0 against Bernabe Zapata Miralles made him stronger with every set before he met Jason Kubler. Here he had to fight a bit more, but he was also convincing at 6-4, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2, especially towards the end of the match.
He gave up twelve break chances to his two opponents, but fended off nine of them. At 1.98 metres, you have to keep an eye on him, especially when it comes to service, but will Frances Tiafoe be able to keep up with him?
The two have met twice before, both times at Wimbledon. In 2018 and 2021, Khachanov was successful, once in three sets, the other time in five. Now, however, it’s hard-court action.
Frances Tiafoe was one of the big surprises at the last US Open, knocking out Rafael Nadal and Andrey Rublev. It was only in the semi-finals that he was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz, who went on to win the tournament.
After an overall strong year in 2022, he naturally wants to convince in 2023 as well and soon conquer the world’s top 10. Tiafoe had quite a bit of trouble cracking his German opponent Daniel Altmaier at the start in Melbourne.
6-3, 6-3, 6-7 and 7-6, everything was still not going well. Tiafoe took four of 16 break chances and could have closed the bag earlier. But 22 aces showed where his strengths lie.
In the 2nd round he faced the young Shang Junchegn. This time, the American didn’t show any weakness at all, collecting a quick 6-4, 6-4, 6-1. But: Here, too, he only converted five of 16 break opportunities.
Perhaps the audience is also on his side because they are allowed to serenade him right at the start of the match. Tiafoe turns 25 on 20 January, so a win would be the ideal birthday present.
Four years ago, he managed to get past the 3rd round at the Australian Open just once. He made it to the quarter-finals, only Rafael Nadal was too big for him in the end.
Karen Khachanov or Frances Tiafoe, which Top 20 player has the advantage? In my eyes, this is a match between two players who are absolutely on an equal footing and both are immensely strong on serve.
Therefore, I cannot identify a real favourite in my analysis. Khachanov always fails in the third round of the Australian Open, but Tiafoe has only reached the last 16 once down under.
So I can’t imagine that either of them will win outright. Not for nothing can they serve extremely well. For this reason, I also decide on the following bet & prepare myself for a long evening:
The match goes the maximum distance!
