BMW Open in Munich, 1st round, Wednesday, 19.04.2023
The ATP tournament in Munich is already in full swing. But the first round match for Daniel Altmaier and Aslan Karatsev is not scheduled until Wednesday.
The German just celebrated a tournament win in the Sarasota Challenger on Sunday. With the 150 points bagged, the 24-year-old is now back in the top 100 of the world rankings.
Can he build on his strong performance in Munich? In my Karatsev Altmaier tip, I provide a forecast for the match.
Altmaier only dropped one set last week in Florida. At the Sarasota Challenger, the man from Kempen won the final against defending champion Daniel Elahi Galan (7-6, 6-1).
Earlier, he retained the upper hand against Enzo Couacaud (6-2, 6-2), Zizou Bergs (7-5, 6-4), Martin Damm 6-7, 6-3, 7-5) and Gabriel DIeallo (retirement).
On clay, the German wants to climb further up the world rankings, his highest ranking so far was last May. At that time, Altmaier was ranked 53rd.
His performance in Munich last year ended after the second round. He first scored against compatriot Philipp Kohlschreiber, who ended his career two months later, after three sets.
In the round of 16, however, Serb Miomir Kecmanovic gave him no chance with a 6-2, 6-4 win. How far does it go for him in 2023?
Already in round one, an unpleasant opponent awaits with Aslan Karatsev. The betting providers expect a close match with slight advantages for the Russian (1.80). At Bet3000, Altmaier’s win odds are slightly higher (1.95).
Due to the strong performance in Florida, the slight underdog role comes as a bit of a surprise. The high odds are probably due to the long, exhausting tournament week in the Sunshine State.
Therefore, the question is how fit Altmaier is after the matches and the trip. In addition, Karatsev has played a strong qualification in the south of Germany.
In round one, the 129th ranked player in the world won against Robin Haase (6-2, 3-6, 6-0). He then needed two sets (6-2, 6-2) only against Louis Wessels.
Karatsev feels comfortable on the German surface so far. However, it is also clear that both opponents are outside the top 250 and have not yet been a benchmark.
For the 29-year-old, it will be the second duel against Altmaier. In August 2019, the two players, who have already earned more than one million euros in prize money, played out the second round of the Como Challenger tournament.
After a clear 6-1 for Karatsev in set one, Altmaier turned the tables after winning the tiebreak (7-5). In the deciding set, the score was 6-3 for Altmaier.
Three sets are not unrealistic for the oddsmakers this time either. For the full length of the match, Betano offers odds of 2.15. For two sets, odds of 1.65 can be picked up.
This bet definitely has value. I don’t expect such a close match as the bettors. Before the match it’s hard to make a prediction who will win the match.
However, when the match is on, I expect a favorite to emerge fairly quickly this time and take the match after two sets.
Conclusion: In the first meeting of the two opponents there was a match with changing momentum. After a clear set loss, Altmaier still prevailed against Karatsev.
However, I don’t expect a long, energy-sapping match on Wednesday. If Altmaier can’t muster enough strength after the trip to the USA and the five matches in Florida, it could be a quick 2-0 for Karatsev.
If the opposite happens and he continues exactly where he left off in Sarasota, I see Altmaier currently on a higher level than Karatsev and think a quick 2:0 for him is realistic. Moreover, Altmaier won eight of his last ten matches in two rounds.
Therefore, I decide in my Karatsev Altmaier tip for a bet on exactly two played sets.
