ATP Shanghai Tournament, Round of 16, Wednesday, 10/11/2023
A big whoop came out of Diego Schwartzman as he converted his first match point against Taylor Fritz in the third round of Shanghai. It was the first win against a top-10 player this year for the Argentine.
The round of 16 will now see a South American clash against Nicolas Jarry. The Chilean, seeded 22, is considered the favorite. In my Jarry Schwartzman tip I look at the best odds.
He finds more and more to old strength, the former eight of the world, Diego Schwartzman. He has now put an exclamation mark at the Shanghai Masters. First, he held his own against Czech Republic’s newcomer Jiri Lehecka.
In the round of 16, he managed to win against a top 10 player again after more than a year. For the match success against Taylor Fritz, the man from Buenos Aires needed three sets, as in the two rounds before: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6.
For the betting companies the successes were surprising, against Lehecka he had 2.90, against Fritz even 5.40 odds. He is also ranked as an underdog (2.65 odds) against Jarry (1.40) in the round of 16 by DAZN Bet.
The improvement in performance has definitely been noted by the oddsmakers. Nevertheless, the current performance of Jarry, who has now worked his way up to world number 22, prevails.
Depending on how the tournament goes, the 28-year-old has a chance of moving into the top 20 for the first time. It’s been an incredible year for him. In total, he won 41 of 60 games.
Like Schwartzman, he prefers to serve on clay, has a career winning record of 65 percent on the surface, but this year’s winning average of 65 percent on hard court is also worth watching.
The two South Americans have already met four times on their favorite surface. In total, the stars have already played out five duels, no less than four of them in 2018.
And each time Jarry lost outright in two sets, first in Rio, then in Miami, and even at the Davis Cup and the Masters in Rome he couldn’t even force the Argentine into a tiebreak.
Five years later, in their fifth meeting, Jarry was able to return the favor in his home country. In March, he defeated Schwartzman in the ATP tournament of Santiago de Chile: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6.
Jarry is also in a better mood in Shanghai. Unlike Schwartzman, he had to play one match less as a seeded player and solved his tasks against Terence Atmane (7-5, 6-2) and Lorenzo Sonego (7-6, 6-2) smoothly in two sets.
Thus, the Chilean played five sets less than Schwartzman in the last few days. On the fast Shanghai courts, the 1.98-meter tall Jarry can make good use of his powerful serves and forehands.
He made 31 out of 36 points after the first serve against Sonego. Against Atmane it was 30 out of 32 points. In his service games he did not let anything go to waste. He only had to fend off one break point.
Also against Schwartzman, I expect him to get through many service games without problems, which will give him a decisive advantage against the Argentine, who allowed 30 break points in the last three matches.
My Jarry Schwartzman Tip
The duel statistics speak a clear language between Schwartzman and Jarry with 4:1. However, Schwartzman scored the victory five years ago, at the level of that time he is not yet, despite his recent success against Fritz.
In March, Jarry finally celebrated his first win against Schwartzman, who can play to his qualities on the fast Shanghai courts and is currently at his career high.
I expect him to come through well on his serves, as he did in the previous rounds, and Schwartzman, who is not a service specialist, will be dangerous time and again. At the latest in possible tiebreaks, Jarry will prevail.
My Jarry Schwartzman tip: 2:0 for Jarry!
