Wimbledon, semi-final, Thursday, 13/07/2023
With fighting qualities Ons Jabeur secured her ticket to the semi-finals of Wimbledon. She is just one win away from making her second Wimbledon final in a row.
She will face Aryna Sabalenka this afternoon. The Belarusian produced a strong performance against grass court specialist Madison Keys.
What bets are on offer for the clash between the two top 10 players, I reveal in my Jabeur Sabalenka tip.
Jabeur can become the first African tennis player to win a Grand Slam tournament. She is aiming to reach her third career Major final at Wimbledon.
In 2022, she failed to reach London and New York. Yesterday, she got revenge for her lost Wimbledon final against Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals.
This time, she turned the tables after being down in the first set. In 2022, it was the Kazakh who had successfully come back from 3-6 down.
The next task against Aryna Sabalenka, who wore down her opponents in unchallenged 2-0 victories, will definitely not be any easier.
Only against Varvara Gracheva (5-7, 7-5, 6-2) did she initially have difficulties, but also came up trumps in this match with 16 break chances. However, as she only made use of four opportunities, it was not another dominant victory.
In Wimbledon, she impressed with her strong first serve, among other things. All in all, she wins almost 80 percent of her points when it successfully flies into the opponent’s court.
But she is also stable on the defensive. She had nine break chances against Madison Keys, who is also a strong server. She now has 52 in the tournament.
The strong performance also makes an impression on the betting companies. Sabalenka is listed as favourite at 1.65 at Bwin. Ons Jabeur was assigned a 2.25.
Jabeur’s service rate was even better than Sabalenka’s in the first matches, especially over the second service she was more confident than the Belarusian.
But as far as the speed rubbers are concerned, the direct duel between Jabeur and Sabalenka speaks for itself. The score is 3:0 for Sabalenka. Jabeur could only win the first encounter at the French Open 2020.
Sabalenka followed that up with wins in Abu Dhabi (6-2, 6-4), Wimbledon (6-4, 6-3) and Fort Worth (3-6, 7-6, 7-5). I see her having the edge again in 2023.
Outstanding in both players’ Wimbledon results this year is the low number of tiebreaks. Jabeur only played one in the quarter-finals against Rybakina, Sabalenka none in her five matches.
All in all, there was only one tiebreak in ten matches. Nevertheless, Bet365 offers interesting odds of 1.44 for less than 0.5 tiebreaks on Thursday.
In combination with a set win for Sabalenka, the odds are even 1.80, which is a suitable bet for this match.
My Jabeur Sabalenka tip
In their last meeting, Jabeur and Sabalenka offered an extremely close match. In the end, however, the Belarussian always prevailed in the end on the fast surfaces.
In Wimbledon, too, I see her ahead again after her dominant successes in the last matches. A small disadvantage for the Tunisian is also the shorter recovery time: she played 30 minutes longer than Sabalenka the day before and her match started a bit later.
I expect both players to put up a very close fight, but in the end Sabalenka will reach the Wimbledon final in her current form.
My Jabeur Sabalenka Tip: Win Sabalenka
