ATP Tournament in Stuttgart, 2nd Round, Wednesday, 14.06.2023
Wednesday the grass court season starts for last year’s winner from Halle. Hubert Hurkacz will serve in Stuttgart. Last year, the 26-year-old failed after his first match.
In 2023, he wants to do better against Yosuke Watanuki. For the betting companies, the match is quite a clear affair. In my Hurkacz Watanuki tip, I give an overview of the best odds.
The French Open was quite disappointing for Hurkacz with a round three exit. All three of the Pole’s matches featured five sets. He finally ran out of steam against Juan Pablo Varillas in his 15th round in five days.
In none of his five clay court tournament appearances did he reach the fourth round of the tournament. The good server should now be happy to continue on grass.
In Stuttgart, he will start against Yosuke Watanuki, who, as an unseeded player, already had to play in round one and won against Feliciano Lopez (7-6, 6-3).
A well-known opponent who has celebrated many successes on grass, but who is now 41 years old and can no longer play at his top level. Lopez has lost 20 of his last 22 matches.
For Watanuki it was already victory number three in Stuttgart. Beforehand, he had to qualify as 121st in the world. He is listed as an underdog against Hurkacz with 3.75 odds at Bet365.
1.28 odds are waiting for a bet on the 2022 Halle champion to win. 1.90 odds are for an outright 2-0 win.
Hurkacz’s odds, which are still quite high, are also due to the fact that, unlike the Japanese player, he has not yet played a match on grass.
That Hurkacz has teething problems when it comes to changing surfaces has been evident in recent years. In each of his last four tennis seasons, he lost the first match on grass.
Stuttgart has therefore not been a good place to play in the last two years. Last year he lost to Marton Fucsovics, in 2021 to Dominic Stricker.
A bet on Watanuki, who is coached by his eight-year older brother Yusuke, is nevertheless too risky. Instead, a bet on many games could be considered.
For more than 22.5 games, Bet-at-home has 1.74 odds on offer. Alternatively, a bet on over 0.5 tiebreaks in the match is also a good option.
Betano provides 1.75 for this market. After all, both players have a strong serve. In his first three Stuttgart matches, Watanuki converted over 80 per cent of his first serves into points.
His ace count already stands at 47. In the last two games, he also allowed just two break chances, one of which he managed to fend off.
Similar values can also be found in Hurkacz’s grass stats. Accordingly, quite quick wins on serve are very likely.
The two players have not yet met on the tour. In the first duel, I, like the betting companies, expect advantages for the Pole, who brings a much better overall quality to the court.
In addition, Watanuki scored his first three Stuttgart wins, which are beyond the top 250 in the world rankings. In addition to the in-form Lopez, he won against Benjamin Hassan, who was playing on grass for the first time at the Boss Open.
His first qualifying opponent Henri Squire has also only been on the tennis court five times. Therefore, Watanuki’s victories should be taken with a grain of salt.
Summary: Hurkacz has lost in his last four matches on grass this season, a harsh statistic he will definitely want to rectify in 2023. In 2022, he proved how strong he can be on this surface by winning the tournament in Halle.
Watanuki definitely has a mental advantage with three match wins in Stuttgart, but these victories should not be overrated. Two of his opponents were inexperienced on grass and Lopez has not been playing at the level of his glory years for a long time.
I think the Pole will break his spell and win his first grass court match in 2023 without much difficulty, but may have to go via tiebreak. Therefore I recommend the 2:0 win for Hurkacz.
