Who will be the surprise at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells 2021? In the absence of Novak Djokovic, a number of top favourites have come together, but experience shows that one or two outsiders always mingle with the best.
One who did not even expect to reach the 2nd round is 23-year-old Daniel Altmaier. After his strong performance against Sam Querrey, he is now expecting something against Grigor Dimitrov.
The DTB has had a lot to celebrate this year! Unforgettable the performances of Oscar Otte and Peter Gojowczyk, who reached the round of 16 in New York. Why shouldn’t Daniel Altmaier also manage such a surprise?
In his first round in Indian Wells, nobody expected a win against Sam Querrey. It wasn’t even a thriller, but a straight walk-through. The German won highly confidently 6-2, 6-4, used all four break chances.
71% of his serves he won, whether first or second. It’s his debut at the BNP Paribas Open and already he’s doing better than anyone expected before the tournament.
With Taro Daniel or Reilly Opelka, an opponent would be waiting in the 3rd round who also seems beatable. Altmaier will now play Grigor Dimitrov for the first time. He was eliminated in the qualifying round at Wimbledon and skipped the US Open.
In recent weeks, the Kempen native has mostly been on the road at Challenger tournaments, but not without success here. In Braunschweig he won the tournament against Henri Laaksonen, at the Sauerland Open he triumphed against Nicolas Jarry.
In July he had been convincing in Kitzbühel, where he defeated Laslo Djere, Marco Cecchinato and Gianluca Mager. His performance a few days earlier in Croatia was also strong, where Altmaier eliminated Dusan Lajovic, among others.
For the rest of 2021, the 23-year-old should realistically aim to break into the top 100. If he manages a win against Dimitrov on Saturday, that could possibly happen in the next few days.
Of course, the Bulgarian is clearly favoured as the world number 28. His odds of victory average 1.35 at Bet365, while Altmaier comes in at 3.40. A success of the underdog would therefore not be a sensation.
Dimitrov is still without an appearance in Indian Wells, he got into this 2nd round by walk-through. This is his eighth appearance at the Masters, he has never made it past the 3rd round! So he doesn’t like to serve here.
Dimitrov has already played a German in 2016, losing to Alexander Zverev in three sets five years ago. However, the 30-year-old is in quite good form in Indian Wells.
In San Diego he had reached the semi-finals, failed in three sets very narrowly to Casper Ruud The Bulgarian seems to be fit again, at the US Open he had to retire injured after losing two tiebreaks in the 2nd round against Alexei Popyrin.
The veteran is regarded by betting friends as a constantly dangerous man. Whether Alexander Bublik or Roberto Bautista Agut, he has often convinced, especially in this year’s tournaments on US soil.
What is the result of my Dimitrov Altmaier tip? The Bulgarian, ranked almost 100 places ahead of the German, is naturally favoured. Also because he had some strong performances this year, among others in San Diego a few weeks ago.
But I wouldn’t underestimate Altmaier at all. He dominated Sam Querrey, and in the last few months he often did well against opponents who were actually stronger. That’s why I think the 23-year-old will be able to put Dimitrov under pressure as well.
Since the outsider seems to be quite confident on serve, this could be his big chance. And who knows, maybe the German men will continue their surprisingly strong year in the USA in 2021.
