Miami Masters, 2nd round, Friday, 03/21/2025, 4:00 pm
Carlos Alcaraz was unable to defend his title again in Indian Wells. The Spaniard was knocked out in the quarter-finals and thus lost some points in the world rankings. From California we now go to Florida!
There, the current world number three will face David Goffin at the start. The odds already say it all: victory is only a question of height and I expect that we won’t see a very long match. We get a tasty odds at Tipwin for under 19.5 games!
Alcaraz has already won the Miami Masters in 2022. A year later, he reached the semi-finals and in 2024 he was out in the last eight. If the trend continues, he will have to bow out in the round of 16 in 2025.
But I strongly doubt that. Last week, he lost a close match to Jack Draper, who eventually secured the first Masters title of the year and with it his first ever. Alcaraz is considered by the bookmakers to be the hottest prospect for the second 1000 in 2025.
Winamax still gives him odds of 2.75, followed by Novak Djokovic at 8.00. Alexander Zverev (11.0), the number one seed, is only considered the third strongest player alongside Draper due to his low form.
For the opening game of Alcaraz, we don’t get lucrative odds for either a straight win (1.04) or a straight 2-0 (1.20). The latter is only suitable as a combination option. That’s why I took a closer look at the other over-under game markets.
I am sure that Alcaraz will not lose a set in this duel and I also don’t think that there will be a break in any of the sets. For under 19.5 games, we get a strong 1.55 odds at Tipwin.
Tipwin is one of the few providers that still offers this market. If you haven’t yet registered with the official partner of Bayer Leverkusen, you can also get your hands on a sports betting bonus of 100 euros.
Those who dare to bet on even fewer games can look forward to even higher odds. However, I think the risk is too high. Because Alcaraz has had his wild phases in matches with bad returns, which could force him to stay on the court longer in the end.
His opponent is a well-known name. Goffin was once ranked in the top 10 in the world. But apart from a brief high last fall, he is far from the player he was in his best years. He will have a hard time against Alcaraz in the rallies.
And since the Belgian is not one of the top servers, he will have a lot of problems against the man from El Palmar, who is outstanding defensively. Technically, Goffin is really strong, but he lacks the power to be able to pose a threat to Alcaraz.
In addition, the world number three is much more agile on the court. In their head-to-head, it is only 2-1, but the Spaniard was still in his teens in two of the three matches and beat Goffin 6-3, 6-3 in the first. The Belgian then got his revenge in Astana in 2022.
The last time the two players faced each other was on clay in Nice. In the super tiebreak of the Hopman Cup, Alcaraz made the decision. While Alcaraz has already won a tournament in Rotterdam and had a good year overall, it has not been a very good year for Goffin, who has mostly been knocked out early.
In five of his eight tournament appearances, he lost his first match. In Miami, he managed to get past the first round against Aleksandar Vukic, as he had done in Indian Wells. He also achieved a notable success in Acapulco, when he beat Ben Shelton from the field.
My Goffin Alcaraz tip
In the matchup Goffin Alcaraz, I see the 13-year-older, the world’s number 55, clearly at a disadvantage. Alcaraz will put a lot of pressure on with his strong forehand return and at the same time get his service games through more easily.
Last week, he lost to a Draper who plays with a lot of speed. That’s not what Goffin is known for, who likes to build up a point over a longer rally and well-placed balls. That won’t be enough against Alcaraz.
Whether short or fast points, Alcaraz has a clear advantage here and that will be evident over two sets, which will probably not be long. By the way, you can also top up your Tipwin account quickly and easily via PayPal.
My Goffin Alcaraz betting tip: Under 19.5 games
