US Open 2023, Final, Saturday, 09/09/2023
Cori Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will play out the final of the US Open on Saturday night. Oddsmakers are expecting an extremely close match. For Gauff it would be the first Grand Slam title ever.
Sabalenka already won the Australian Open this year. She will be challenged by the youngest US Open finalist since Serena Williams in the 90s.
The first duels between the two stars were already a tight affair. I take a look at the best odds for the final in my Gauff Sabalenka tip and give a recommendation.
Sloane Stepehns was the last US American to win the US Open in 2017. Six years later, Cori Gauff could be next. This is her second time in the final of a major.
In 2022, she made the final in Paris, but she had no chance against Iga Swiatek on the red clay. The Pole will lose her place at the top of the world rankings in New York.
Gauff’s opponent in the final, Sabalenka, took the throne for the first time in her career. The Belarusian is having an outstanding year, winning the Australian Open, reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon and Paris, and now back in the final at the US Open.
51 of her 61 matches have been won. On hardcourt alone, it was 31 wins from 36 matches. She strolled through the tournament tree until the semifinals at the US Open without losing a set or a tiebreaker.
Alarm bells started ringing against Madison Keys when she surprisingly lost the first set 0-6 and was also down 2-4 in the second.
But in champion fashion, the 25-year-old came back, fighting her way into the tiebreak and turning the match in her favor: 0-6, 7-6, 7-6.
With 2:35 hours she was on the court in the semifinals as long as in the eighth and quarterfinals together. However, Gauff had not been on court for much shorter before.
The 19-year-old prevailed against French Open finalist Karolina Muchova: 6-4, 7-5. In New York, she is the fan favorite. She was loudly supported at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
In the final, she will again be able to count on the support of the nearly 24,000 spectators at the world’s largest tennis arena.
Bet3000 expects a very close match. Slightly ahead is Sabalenka with 1.80 odds. The Gauff win would exactly double the bet in case of success.
However, Gauff leads the direct comparison with 3:2. She celebrated her last success last year in Toronto after three long sets: 7-5, 5-6, 7-6. The Belarusian won the last and only duel in 2023: 6-4, 6-0 (Indian Wells).
Even though the ladies have played out a tiebreak three times, I think Bet365’s 1.36 odds for under 0.5 tiebreaks are strong. After all, there was no tiebreak in any of the six Gauff matches at the US Open, and in Sabalenka’s case it wasn’t until the semifinals.
In the last 27 Gauff matches, there was only one tiebreak! Combined with a set win for Sabalenka, sports betting fans will get 1.83 odds using the betting configurator.
Definitely this cobbled together total odds has value. Sabalenka has only gone without a set win in two hard court matches this year.
She only failed to win a set against Gauff in her only clay court match in Rome in 2021.
Conclusion: Like the oddsmakers, I see Sabalenka with a slight advantage over Gauff. For one thing, she has already won a title and serves a bit more stable than the US player, who hasn’t had a good rate of first serves lately.
But Gauff is carried by the almost 24,000 spectators as a local hero and last had a taste of the finals in a major in 2022. As in the last matches of both players, I expect some breaks.
A tiebreak in a Gauff match is therefore a rarity. For the US Open final, I therefore serve the following betting recommendation.
My Gauff Sabalenka US Open Final tip: Set win Sabalenka & no tiebreak!
