Rome Masters, 3rd round, Sunday, 11.05.2025, 14:00
Interesting opponent for Alexander Zverev in the third round of Rome. The defending champion will face Vilius Gaubas. He will be facing the Lithuanian, who is playing his most successful tournament, for the first time in his career.
But he is likely to find it difficult against the Olympic champion from Tokyo. Anything other than another outright win for Zverev would surprise me, so I’ll take the 2:0 from Winamax, which is still quite decent in terms of the odds.
6-2, 6-1 against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. A confident start for Zverev after the early exit in Madrid. Following his triumph at the 500 in Munich, the Hamburg-born player has already failed in the round of 16 in the Spanish capital, losing to Francisco Cerundolo, as he did last year.
A week later, the 28-year-old is in defense mode, as the reigning Rome champion he wants to lose as few points as possible in the world rankings and, ideally, triumph again to maintain his good starting position in the table.
In his 6-2, 6-1 win over Ugo Carabelli, Zverev won a whopping 61 percent of points on the return, grabbed six breaks and only conceded one himself. I can imagine a similarly dominant result against Gaubas.
Zverev again starts as the heavy favorite according to the odds, with winning odds of around 1.09 with our PayPal betting providers. For the 2:0 we get 1.30, which is also suitable as a bet for a combination ticket on a sporty Sunday.
If you like it a little higher, you can use the Bet365 configurator to add that no tiebreak will be played. The tiebreak odds usually come in a little later, but experience has shown that the combination should allow for total odds of around 1.60.
Whether Bet365 or Winamax, you don’t pay any betting taxes with either sports betting provider. There is also the advantage that you can watch all ATP and WTA matches played in Rome live in the stream.
Why I expect a new Zverev show is mainly due to the inexperience and service deficit of his opponent, who is eight years younger. His first serve rate is not bad, but at 1.78 meters he lacks the angle and speed.
Zverev, who was very strong on the defensive in round one, will often be able to neutralize the serves and find his way into the rallies. Gaubas successfully fought his way through qualifying with victories over Eliot Spizzirri and Hugo Delien.
In his first Masters tournament ever, he then finally defeated Damir Dzumhur and a currently out-of-form and ailing Denis Shapovalov. The third round in Rome is his absolute career highlight
This is his first ever participation in an ATP tournament, having previously failed in the qualifying rounds; his exit in the 2024 US Open qualifiers was particularly bitter, when he lost to Diego Schwartzman in the decisive third match.
He took the next step in 2025. He reached the final at the Menorca Challenger and in the Eternal City, even winning the former. With nine wins from his last eleven matches, the Lithuanian has gained a lot of self-confidence.
Nevertheless, I don’t think he has the profile to be able to compete with Zverev. On the one hand, his shots are too harmless and, at the same time, he still lacks the pace of play to force Zverev into making mistakes.
My Gaubas Zverev tip
Zverev has made a strong start in Rome. I expect two more clear set wins in round three. He served confidently at the start, conceded just one break and scored more points on his opponent’s serve than he did himself.
Gaubas lacks experience on the big stage and is competing against a top 10 player for the first time and has wobbled mightily in previous matches when he has had to swing.
He will occasionally put in pinpricks against Zverev, but in the end it should be a quick and easy affair for the Australian Open finalist.
My Gaubas Zverev tip: 2:0 Zverev.
