Indian Wells, Quarter Finals, Thursday, 16/03/2023
Interesting duel in the quarterfinals of Indian Wells. Taylor Fritz will meet Jannik Sinner. Both players have had a comfortable tournament so far.
Who will punch the semi-final ticket in the first Masters of the 2023 tennis season? I go into the pairing in my Fritz Sinner tip and recommend a suitable bet.
Fritz has increasingly gone full throttle after dropping the first set 4-6 in the first round in Indian Wells. The man from San Diego still turned the match against Ben Shelton in 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
In the round of 16, he then gave Argentina’s Sebastian Baez (6-1, 6-2) no chance, who was only able to win one service game.
The task in the round of the last 16 players was a bit more crunchy. But Marton Fucsovics (4-6, 3-6) also went down in two sets in the end.
Accordingly, there has not yet been a tiebreak in the Fritz matches in Indian Wells. In the last seven matches and 17 sets of the 25-year-old, it only came to the 13th game of a set twice anyway.
A clear statistic that speaks for a bet on under 0.5 tiebreaks in the match against Sinner. At Bet365, the corresponding odds are 1.66.
The odds are completely balanced at the betting provider. Both tennis stars have been given 1.90 at Bet365.
However, the first duel was not even. Sinner and Fritz met for the only time in 2021. Back then, they also met in Indian Wells and Fritz was in full control of the match with a 6-4, 6-3 win.
But the bookmakers are not expecting such a clear result in the new edition. That’s why the odds for two sets played slip into a lucrative range of 1.66.
Fritz, who currently occupies his best world ranking ever at number five, has had an outstanding year so far, winning the United Cup and Delray Beach.
He has won ten of his last eleven matches, only Tommy Paul came out on top in the semi-finals in Acapulco. The match from the last eight encounters in which two tiebreaks were played.
However, Sinner does not have to hide with his record. In Montpellier, he took out Lorenzo Sonego, Arthur Fils and Maxime Cressy on his way to the title.
A week later, it was almost enough for the second tournament success in a row. But after winning the first set in the final against Daniil Medvedev, two clear rejections followed with 2-6.
Nine of the last eleven matches ended after two sets. In Fritz’s case, there were seven matches in this series that did not go the maximum possible distance.
In Indian Wells, Sinner first beat Richard Gasquet (6-3, 7-6) and Adrian Mannarino (7-6, 6-4). He finally eliminated three-time Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka (6-1, 6-4) in the round of 16.
But the result looks more dominant than it actually was. With nine break chances, Wawrinka managed to create as many as Sinner (14), but unlike the Italian, he did not use four, but only one.
Sinner’s point rate after his first serve was particularly poor, with 68 percent of his first serve converted into points. Against Mannarino and Gasquet, this value was still over 80 percent.
Both players won their last matches brilliantly. I see Sinner slightly ahead in the longer rallies, but the Californian has a minimal advantage on serve.
Summary: It is difficult to pick a favourite given the tournament successes and the current flawless performance of both players.
However, I am convinced that a stronger player will emerge quite quickly in the match who can win the match in two sets.
Therefore, in my Fritz Sinner tip, I recommend a bet on exactly two sets in the match at odds of 1.66 at Bet365.
