ATP Masters in Madrid, Round of 16, Tuesday, 29.04.2025, 9:30 p.m.
Preparations for the French Open are in full swing. Although Jannik Sinner (still suspended) and Carlos Alcaraz are missing from the Madrid Masters, the tournament is still packed with top stars.
In the round of 16, the third-seeded American is aiming to advance. In my Fritz Ruud tip, I’ll tell you why I don’t have a clear favorite and why I’m betting on “over 2.5 sets.”
Traveling to Madrid as the world number four, Taylor Fritz is hoping for a decent performance. The 27-year-old is a late starter to the clay court season, having to pull out of the Monte Carlo Masters due to injury. He also missed the BMW Open. Is he fit enough to impress in Madrid?
His 6-1, 6-4 opening win against Christopher O’Connell looked pretty confident, but a little later the facade started to crumble. Fritz played against Benjamin Bonzi and advanced – but no one knows if he would have made it without his opponent retiring.
With the score at 4-6, 7-5 in favor of the American, the match was over. Fritz only managed to close out the second set after his fifth set point. Unsurprisingly, it was his own serve that won him the match. Bonzi only managed to break once, but Fritz himself couldn’t manage a higher ratio.
The break from competition was clearly noticeable, and now he’s about to face a proven specialist on clay. Fritz reached the semifinals in Madrid a year ago, where he was defeated by Andrey Rublev.
After a month-long break, it can’t be a big advantage to face Casper Ruud in the round of 16. Or can it? Let’s take a look at the head-to-head record, as there have been some thrilling encounters between these two players.
Last year, they each secured one victory. While Fritz won in four sets at the US Open, Ruud claimed victory at the French Open. No surprise there, as we all know that the Norwegian is at his strongest on clay.
Fritz, on the other hand, prefers faster courts with his height of almost two meters. In a direct comparison, Ruud leads 2-1. It is also interesting to note that none of the three victories were won in straight sets. Close matches are the order of the day, so it was not easy to pick a favorite.
At our bookmakers with PayPal, Ruud is ahead with average odds of 1.70:2.20. Apparently, a lot of importance is attached to who likes playing on clay. Casper Ruud should be happy that he can finally play on his favorite surface again.
The Norwegian only managed six wins at the start of the year, but did reach the final once (in Dallas). And yet, he had imagined his return to clay to be very different. In Monte Carlo, he was knocked out early by Alexei Popyrin after a win against Roberto Bautista Agut.
Ruud showed slight improvement in Barcelona, where he defeated Daniel Elahni Galan and Hamad Mededovic before being knocked out in the quarterfinals by Holger Rune. These performances still fell short of his own expectations.
I was all the more surprised by the confidence with which the 26-year-old is now playing in Madrid. The first match ended 6-3, 6-4 against Arthur Rinderknech, and shortly afterwards he gave Sebastian Korda no chance, winning 6-3, 6-3.
However, Korda failed to convert four out of five break points, and Fritz could have been a little more efficient with such opportunities. As much as the Scandinavian likes playing on clay, he has somehow not yet been able to make peace with the Madrid Masters.
In 2021, he stormed into the semi-finals here, but since then he has always missed out on the quarter-finals. Last year, after two straight wins to start, his run came to an end in exactly the same round against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
My Fritz Ruud tip
Neither Casper Ruud nor Taylor Fritz are in top form at the moment. The American still doesn’t look really fit and recently benefited from Benjamin Bonzi’s retirement.
Ruud has improved, but it’s hard to judge how consistent he really is. Since their previous head-to-head matches have been quite close and I see both players as roughly equal, I’ve decided on the following tip:
We’ll see three sets!
