Miami Open, Round of 16, Tuesday, 28/03/2023
For Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune it’s into the second week of the Miami Open. The two top-10 players will meet in the round of 16 of the second ATP Masters of the year.
The winner will meet the winner of the duel Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul. Who will secure a place in the quarter-finals? I deliver a prediction in my Fritz Rune tip.
Taylor Fritz is currently playing some commanding tennis. The US American has won 18 of his 23 matches in 2023. In Australia, he won the United Cup with the USA.
The 25-year-old celebrated a singles triumph in Delray Beach, where he beat Mackenzie McDonald (6-3, 7-6) and Miomir Kecmanovic (6-0, 5-7, 6-2) among others.
In Acapulco, he was only stopped by Tommy Paul (3-6, 7-6, 6-7) after wins over John Isner (3-6, 6-3, 6-4), Denis Shapovalov (6-4, 6-4) and Frances Tiafoe (6-3, 6-4).
He reached the quarter-finals in the first Masters of the year. But he was unable to defend his Indian Wells title from 2022. After three sets, he lost out to Jannik Sinner (4-6, 6-4, 4-6).
Despite the lost points, Fritz is still in the Top 10. On Tuesday, a tough task awaits him in the round of 16. There he will meet Holger Rune, who is ranked two places higher.
Fritz is the favourite in this clash with 1.61 odds, the odds on the Dane are in the slight underdog range of 2.30.
But the betting companies expect a close match in any case. Therefore, the odds for two sets played are even at 1.61, meaning the oddsmakers also consider three sets (2.20) very likely.
So far, both players have come through the tournament smoothly. If we again assume that one of the two top-10 stars will go without losing a set, the 1.61 odds are definitely worth it.
Fritz was able to win against the Isner defeater Emilio Nava (6-4, 6-1) and against Denis Shapovalov (6-4, 6-4). He allowed surprisingly few break opportunities so far. Nava had two chances, the Canadian none at all.
The same goes for Rune, who had to fend off a break point a total of three times. Should both players remain consistent and confident, a bet on over 0.5 tiebreaks could be worthwhile. The odds are 2.00.
An astonishingly high value. But if we take the sets from the last five matches of both players together, we find only one out of 23 sets in which there was a tiebreak.
Rune played out the tiebreak against Wawrinka and won it in the second set in Indian Wells, but lost the match to the Swiss in the end.
He has already advanced one round in the second Masters than in California. After his great success in Paris last year, when he took out Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, a triumph in 2023 has yet to come.
After a stumbling start and first-round exit in Adelaide against Yoshihito Nishioka (6-2, 4-6, 4-6), he lost in round four at the Australian Open to Andrey Rubley after five sets in a match tie-break.
He reached the semi-finals in Montpellier and Acapulco. But consistency has not yet come into his game. In general, the Dane, who has a very offensive style of play, still produces too many errors in 2023.
Recently, he was able to improve his statistics a little. Against Diego Schwartzman in the third round, he won 25 times and made 15 unforced errors.
Total: The tennis world will see Taylor Fritz versus Holger Rune for the first time. The betting companies expect a close match with a positive outcome for Fritz.
I also see Fritz in the role of favourite. In terms of play, both are on a similar level, but in terms of mentality, I see an advantage for the US American, who remains calm on the court at all times.
Rune, on the other hand, is often temperamental. In these phases Fritz could strike, but breaking the Dane will not be an easy task. Especially the service games in the second sets he played cleanly in Miami.
Therefore, in my Fritz Rune tip, I am betting on a Fritz win and combine it with over 0.5 tiebreaks in the match.
