ATP Tournament in Eastbourne, Semifinals, Friday, 27.06.2025, 5:30 p.m.
Taylor Fritz had a tough Thursday. First, he had to finish the third set of the previous day’s match against Brazilian tennis gem Joao Fonseca, winning 7-5, and then was back on court just a few hours later.
But the world number five also won the quarter-final. Now he faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who has not played badly in the tournament so far. However, I see the American as having the advantage.
For my Fritz Davidovich tip, I have chosen the combination that Fritz will win the first set and the match at the well-known betting provider AdmiralBet. My tennis bet for today!
He lost the second set in the first two rounds, but in the end he was able to pull through the matches and show his fighting spirit. Fritz is undoubtedly one of the extended circle of favorites at Wimbledon. He already reached the quarterfinals in London last year.
And he has already won titles on grass, four to be precise. This year, he triumphed in Stuttgart for the first time, defeating Germany’s number one, Alexander Zverev. He bagged the other three winner’s trophies in Eastbourne.
In 2019, 2022, and 2024, he was crowned champion on the east coast of England. He has won no other tournament as often, even though the conditions there are usually anything but easy. As is typical for the coast, it is very windy, which the players on the fairly open courts also feel.
But that’s just as much a part of Eastbourne as the seagulls that constantly fly across the TV screen, sometimes blocking the view of the match. I’ve only ever experienced restricted viewing from live stadium seats. For the pros, the tournament is the last opportunity to get ready for Wimbledon alongside the 250 tournament in warm Mallorca.
After his victories over Fonseca and Marcos Giron, Fritz starts the match as the favorite at 1.31 with our top betting providers. He also had to go to a third set against his compatriot, but was able to improve his serve significantly and force his opponent to lose a service game.
Davidovich Fokina, who has had a good year so far, has fought his way back into the top 30 and has already played three matches in Eastbourne. Unlike Fritz, the Spaniard did not have any of the top seeds.
But it can’t have been too bad for a man who only plays the most necessary grass court matches of the year. After all, Eastbourne is the only tournament he has played on grass before Wimbledon. So the Spaniard had a little more time to acclimatize on the English Channel.
And with Chun Hsin Tseng in the first round, he had a grateful task (7-6, 6-2). After the world number 96, he had to face James Duckworth (6-7, 6-3, 6-4).
The first real test finally came in the quarterfinals. But the still inexperienced world number 17, Jakub Mensik, struggled with the wind.
The 19-year-old, who has only played 13 grass court matches in his career, went down in straight sets. Although he was able to get into Davidovich Fokina’s service games more often, he failed to capitalize on his opportunities.
The Spaniard fought for the last two games with 16 break points, while Fritz only allowed six. The serve makes an even bigger difference in these conditions. Speed combined with wind makes returning even more difficult.
Fritz has gotten many of his first serves over the net so far, with an average of around 70 percent. He won about 80 percent of the points, with only a few wobbles on his serve.
In decisive moments and at the start of the first matches in Eastbourne, however, he was able to rely on his first serves.
That’s why I believe he can win, despite the 2-3 head-to-head record. These statistics should be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Two of the matches were played in the last decade, and two of Davidovich Fokina’s three wins came on clay, Fritz’s weakest surface.
They are now playing each other for the first time on grass. In their last encounter to date, Fritz lost in two tiebreaks in the quarterfinals of Delray Beach, a tournament he has won twice.
My Fritz Davidovich Fokina tip
Can Davidovich Fokina follow up his Delray Beach victory by upsetting the American again on what is a happy hunting ground for Fritz? I dare say I doubt it. His serve comes into play even more here, and Fritz has a clear advantage in that department.
He wins most of his service games in no time at all.
He has also developed his defensive play on the return in general. He was already courageous against Giron and moved well from corner to corner. His improved footwork has also contributed to his leap into the top 5.
Davidovich Fokina cannot match the good serve statistics, neither in terms of reliability nor power. His opponents had 16 break points in the last two rounds alone.
Against the three-time tournament winner, who has been on a roll in all seven grass court matches so far and won the first set, I am therefore going for the following bet.
My Fritz Davidovich Fokina prediction: Set 1 & Match Fritz
