Fritz – Brooksby ATP Tournament in Eastbourne, Final, Saturday, 28.06.2025, 17:00
Win a title as a qualifier? Jenson Brooksby has already done it this year! On his comeback tour, he triumphed on the clay in Houston in the spring. Now, as a lucky loser, he can win his second 250 title.
However, the three-time tournament winner stands in his way. In my Fritz Brooksby tip, I think the supposed underdog can win at least one set, and Oddset has really good odds for this bet.
Two Americans against each other, two Californians against each other. Fritz and Brooksby are facing their third duel. The first two took place on the big stage, at the US Open and the Australian Open. The latter took place this year, a quick 3-0 for the current world number five.
Things looked very different in the US metropolis in 2021. Brooksby came back impressively after losing the first set to win 3-1. At the time, the now 24-year-old reached the round of 16, his best Grand Slam performance to date.
A good six months later, he achieved his best ranking of 33rd. Later, recurring wrist problems slowed him down. On top of that, he was handed a doping ban.
However, this was not due to the detection of a banned substance in his body, but because he missed three doping tests. Brooksby, who is open about his autism, complained at the time about poor communication with the test official.
Brooksby did not play on court for a total of two years. After his exit in Melbourne in 2023, he made his comeback at the Australian Open in 2025. Therefore, his 0-3 defeat against Fritz is not very meaningful, as he was still at the very beginning of his comeback.
He reached the third round at the Indian Wells Masters, finally won his first ever tournament in Houston and has now fought his way into the final in Eastbourne. Our top betting providers consider a 3.00 win to be quite unlikely. Fritz is rated as the favorite (1.34).
However, we cannot say we are completely convinced at these odds, and Fritz has had his weaker moments in previous rounds.
He has not won any of his three matches in straight sets. That’s why I decided yesterday in my Fritz tip to go for victory in the first set and match success rather than 2:0, which was a good decision.
With significantly more match practice compared to their encounter in Melbourne, I believe he can win the set. He has already upset Fritz at a much younger age, and that was at the most important tournament for Fritz.
And in the previous rounds, he only dropped one set, and that was in the semi-finals against Ugo Humbert. In the other matches, he impressed with many points won on his first serve and very good return statistics.
He didn’t even qualify for the tournament, losing his second match against Aleksandar Vukic, but then got a lucky loser spot and seized his chance.
He got off to a favorable start in the tournament with Francisco Comesana, Nuno Borges, and Daniel Evans. Either his opponents were players who had not yet achieved any career highlights on grass, or they were opponents who are a long way from their top form.
Therefore, his victories should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, he has had a strong tournament, already taking out another big name in Humbert and confirming in other tournaments that he is someone to be reckoned with on the tour.
He has also won sets against Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in his career. A good alternative odds from Oddset, where you can also top up your credit with PayPal, is 2.60 for exactly three sets in the match.
My Fritz Brooksby tip
It will be hard work for Fritz if he wants to win his fourth Eastbourne title. Brooksby has already had some highlights in his career and is getting stronger and stronger in his comeback year. Like Fritz, he relies primarily on hard groundstrokes.
He has only dropped one set in the main draw so far, has already won a tournament this year like his Californian colleague, and won his only meaningful duel 3-1 at the US Open, giving other tennis greats a tough time.
Fritz has not yet delivered a consistent match and has already conceded seven breaks in three matches, which is not a good statistic for grass court tennis, and Brooksby has returned really well so far!
For me, the world number 149, who has already won at least one set against the world number 101 this week and will move into the top 100 with a win in this tournament, is not really an underdog.
Therefore, my Fritz Brooksby bet is: Brooksby wins a set!
