ATP Finals, Semifinals, Saturday, 19.11.2022
One is the record champion, the other a true debutant – so do we even need to analyse the first semi-final of the ATP Finals in Turin in detail? Admittedly, THAT would be far too easy!
On Saturday evening, Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz will face each other. The American already has quite a few sets and matches in his bones, now he has to combine his strengths against the Djoker. The bookmakers? They are talking about a clear favourite.
Not only Betano has the Serbian national hero in a relatively clear lead.
In my Djokovic Fritz tip I will now reveal which match I expect and what the direct comparison has to do with my recommendation.
He came, he saw and he won? This would be the title of the Taylor Fritz victory articles, but it’s not the end of the day yet. The US American is number nine in the world rankings and would actually not be in Turin.
But since Carlos Alcaraz announced his withdrawal due to illness, Fritz was included in the field of participants after all. His tournament began with a match against Rafael Nadal, which he surprisingly won by a clear margin.
At 7-6, 6-1, he did not give the Spaniard a single break chance, collected well over 80% on average in the categories of points won on the first and second serve and successful first serves.
His service was not bad in the second game either, but there were a few gaps. These caused Casper Ruud to win by a narrow margin. Fritz, however, also showed that he was close to success at 3-6, 6-4, 6-7(6).
He only allowed one break, but his second serve was much weaker than against Nadal at 44%. Both he and Felix Auger-Aliassime now met in the group final, both with one win and one loss.
From the beginning, both fought to the hilt. The score was 1-1 after sets, as both one and the other had won a tiebreak. In the third set, it was the American who pulled away decisively.
In the end, he won 7-6, 6-7, 6-2, partly because his serve came back much stronger. Proof of this: a break opportunity for Auger, which he was able to fend off, however.
In three matches Fritz has only given away one point on his own service, which is impressive. On Saturday, he will play his first final semifinal, but not his first match against Novak Djokovic.
This duel has already taken place five times, with the Serb winning five times. Only once, at the 2021 Australian Open, did Fritz snatch a set. The two have not faced each other directly for a year, and the supposed underdog in particular has improved enormously in 2022.
But Novak Djokovic wouldn’t be Novak Djokovic if he didn’t have the right recipe for this opponent. After his defeat in the final in Paris, his clear goal is to lift the trophy in Turin.
He hasn’t won a final since 2015, but that’s about to change. Right from the start, the Djoker showed: I don’t want to let anyone pass here. He managed his first win against a very strong Stefanos Tsitsipas, a close one with 6-4, 7-6.
Against Andrey Rublev, Djokovic had a somewhat easier match, snatching a 6-4, 6-1. The Russian had no chance at all to break, and against Tsitsipas he fended off the only opportunity with aplomb.
After two matches, Djokovic was already a semi-finalist. Nevertheless, he did not want to show any weakness against Daniil Medvedev, who had already been eliminated, at the end of the group phase.
The fact that he only managed to do so after an extremely tough battle, three sets and two tiebreaks, was due to the Russian’s remarkable resistance. Nevertheless, Djokovic ultimately came through undefeated here as well.
A semi-final at the finals does not automatically mean that the final will be reached. Last year, for example, the Djoker lost to Alexander Zverev despite three victories in the preliminary round, and in 2020 he was also eliminated here.
Nobody notices that everything is new for Taylor Fritz in Turin! The US-American shows himself very strong in his finals debut, keeps his nerve especially in the most important, tightest situations.
His results are close, he already had to play a tiebreak four times and three sets twice. Novak Djokovic’s results read a little more confident. Now, however, the Serb is up against an opponent who has perfect control of his own serve.
While my general favourite is Djokovic, I would bet on both serving strongly in this match. So I recommend the following tip:
Over 21.5 games
