Miami Masters, Semifinal, Friday, 03/28/2025, 08:00 PM
Together, Novak Djokovic and Grigor Dimitrov have a combined age of 70 years. In the duel of the veterans, the four-year-older Djokovic wants to secure his place in the final in Miami.
The Serb can become the sole record holder of the Masters in Florida with the title. He currently shares the top position with Andre Agassi.
But first, he has to get past last year’s finalist. He has an incredible record against Dimitrov, as he does against so many other players.
Nevertheless, I expect one or two sets to be closer and have decided to bet on at least one tiebreak on NEO.bet in my Djokovic Dimitrov tip!
12:1 is the head-to-head record after 13 matches between Djokovic and Dimitrov. The Serb has already burst some of the current world number 15’s dreams, and tears have flowed. For example, in the last duel in Paris 2023.
That final was also played on hard court as part of a Masters tournament. Djokovic won, while Dimitrov missed out on the opportunity to win his second 1000 title. Incidentally, Djokovic has 40 of them. Yes, that too is one of the records of the high-flyer from Belgrade.
Incidentally, Paris is the only Masters he has won more often than Miami. He has already triumphed six times in the Sunshine State. However, his last victory was a while ago, in 2016.
In the field of the last four players, he is the clear favorite to win the tournament, with odds of 1.60 in the top sports betting apps.
No wonder: after all, he is still unbeaten by the other two semi-finalists. But first of all, he has to overcome the hurdle called “Dimitrov”.
We can add Djokovic’s victory to the betting slip at 1.23, with the Bulgarian’s odds at 4.05. Even with the combination of the current number five in the world winning the first set and the match, we only get odds of around 1.44.
And 2-0 in sets at 1.76 is just too hot for me against last year’s finalist, who will give his all against Djokovic. Even the statistic that the record Grand Slam winner has won all four previous Miami matches without losing a set leaves me cold.
The really serious test was still not there. Rinky Hijikata is just present in the top 100. Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Lorenzo Musetti primarily perform well on clay and Sebastian Korda has not yet reached his desired level after his numerous injuries.
I had already given you a prediction for the quarter-final match against the local hero and recommended the tiebreak bet at a whopping 2.26 – and that’s what we got in a game with just three breaks.
The odds for the semi-final are in a similar range, which surprises me a bit, because a tiebreak is even more likely here compared to the Korda game. Djokovic conceded his first break ever against Korda. And Dimitrov?
He also made it through the first three rounds without losing a game on his serve. It was only Francisco Cerundolo (6-7, 6-4, 7-6) who managed to win two service games from him in a close fight for a place in the semi-finals. Both players have already played three tiebreaks.
Djokovic had a stellar first serve percentage of 83 percent against Korda, only giving up every fifth point on his own serve.
Dimitrov also had a good average first serve percentage of 65 percent, enabling him to win at least 81 percent of the points in each game. Only Cerundolo managed to win at least one in every three return points.
Brandon Nakashima, Karen Khachanov and Federico Coria did not come close to these numbers.
My Djokovic Dimitrov tip
Djokovic and Dimitrov have had a great tournament so far, with their own service games looking pretty much unassailable. I expect that the world’s best returner will be able to do more against the Bulgarian, but he shouldn’t get many opportunities.
Besides, I am still not quite sure what form Djokovic is in, because he has not yet played the major hard court task in Miami. Therefore, despite the clear 12-1 for Djokovic, I am not betting on a win here and instead have the tiebreak on the slip of paper.
Both have already played three of them. In total, they have only lost three service games in eight matches. In addition, the match is being played at 3:00 p.m. local time.
In the slightly hotter conditions with sunlight, the felt ball flies even faster, which suits the serves. In addition to the tiebreak odds, you should take a look at the spot betting bonus at NEO.bet. A generous bonus credit with very fair wagering requirements and a €10 free bet before the first deposit await you there.
Tiebreak in the match!
