ATP Masters in Indian Wells, round of 16, Thursday, March 13, 2023, 2:00 a.m.
Can Carlos Alcaraz achieve the Indian Wells triple? Actually, we wanted to see Alexander Zverev far ahead, but after his early elimination, the Masters will not have a German winner in 2025 either.
The Spanish superstar will play his round of 16 on Thursday morning. Although he has lost the last two duels against his current opponent, he is the clear favorite.
In my Dimitrov Alcaraz betting tip, I’ll tell you why it could be a close game here.
The defeat in the Australian Open quarterfinals to Novak Djokovic was a clear disappointment for Carlos Alcaraz. The 21-year-old’s expectations are high with four Grand Slam titles, and every rally is closely scrutinized.
When he was back on top of the podium in Rotterdam a little later, Alcaraz’s world seemed to be in order. Or were there already small warning signs to be seen, since three of the five victories had taken three sets?
In any case, Alcaraz lost to Jiri Lehecka in the quarterfinals in Qatar. He will be able to cope if a better result follows at the Indian Wells Masters. The Spaniard won here in 2024 and 2023, making him the two-time defending champion.
Roger Federer (2004 to 2006) and Novak Dokovic (2014 to 2016) have also collected three titles in a row here, and Alcaraz is now aiming to join them in this category.
He won his first match easily, 6-4, 6-2 against Quentin Halys. 95% first service points won, no break given away, it was a perfect start.
Denis Shapovalov was also unable to pose him any problems in the 6-2, 6-4 victory. Here Alcaraz was able to fend off three of four break points against him, but was no longer quite as solid when serving his own game.
But of course, Shapovalov, seeded at number 27, is no easy opponent. I can’t say the same about Grigor Dimitrov. The two have played each other five times, with Alcaraz just ahead 3-2.
But: Dimitrov won the last two duels! In 2024, at the Miami Masters, the Bulgarian won 6-2, 6-4. Four of the five meetings took place at the Masters level, so the score here is 2-2.
But anyone who thinks that our bookmakers are expecting a close fight is sorely mistaken. Alcaraz is clearly favored, with odds averaging 1.12 to 6.00.
Even if you are considering a 2-0 victory for the Spaniard, you won’t get 1.50. Grigor Dimitrov had to abandon his Australian Open during the first match, lost 4-6, 4-6 to Jiri Lehecka in Qatar and withdrew again in Dubai.
In Indian Wells, the 33-year-old finally wants to impress again with his fitness. After his 6-3, 6-4 win at the start against Nuno Borges, the fans experienced a real thriller as Dimitrov faced Gael Monfils.
In the battle of the veterans, he won 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, which took a lot of strength! Both fell into each other’s arms after the game, knowing what exciting hours they had given the spectators.
The Bulgarian has been competing in Indian Wells for 13 years, and a semi-final in 2021 represents his best result. Last year, he was knocked out in the round of the last 16 for the first time (defeated by Daniil Medvedev), and now he is facing the threat of being knocked out for a second time.
My tip
Can Grigor Dimitrov annoy Carlos Alcaraz for the third time in a row? In particular, tennis fans will remember last year’s Miami Masters victory, and the 33-year-old, who has a strong serve, should not be underestimated under any circumstances.
In his epic match against Gael Monfils, he looked fit, and there was no sign of his recent injury. Carlos Alcaraz did not have to push himself to his limits in Indian Wells, and he also advanced easily against Denis Shapovalov.
All in all, I expect Dimitrov to give the four-time GS champion a run for his money. That’s why I decided on the following bet:
We’ll see three sets in the round of 16!
