ATP Tournament in Washington, Final, Sunday, 27.07.2025, 23:00
The big dream of Washington tennis fans has not come true. After Sebastian Korda came out on top in 2024, this year’s final will take place without any US participation.
However, we are not in for a weak final, as two players ranked in the top 10 will face each other late on Sunday evening. In my Davidovich Fokina De Minaur tip, I will now reveal why I think you have a good chance with the bet “Fokina to win the set.”
Who is the man who knocked crowd favorite Ben Shelton out just before the big final? Admittedly, I was wrong too; I also thought Shelton had a good chance of reaching the final. The winner of this semifinal was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
The Spaniard has reached the final for the third time this year. He knows that he is still missing one title, having lost both previous finals. Davidovich Fokina has therefore, at least in my eyes, surprisingly made it this far, automatically equaling his best result in Washington.
His 6-2, 7-5 victory over Ben Shelton was characterized by his strong serve. The American only had one chance to break, with 71% of Davidovich Fokina’s first serves successfully crossing the net. With 78% of points won on his first serve and 64% on his second, I can hardly find anything to criticize here.
Did Fokina already stand out with such a strong serve during his earlier matches in Washington? He had already fallen out of favor with the American crowd in the quarterfinals, where he defeated top seed Taylor Fritz 7-6, 3-6, 7-5. And here, very interestingly, he gave up a whopping 17 break points!
The improvement is undeniable. Or was the match against Fritz an exception in this regard? Against Learner Tien (6-2, 6-2, the only break point saved) and Jaume Munar (6-4, 6-2, one break allowed), his stats weren’t that bad.
Of course, Taylor Fritz is one of the best in the world, so if you don’t have your best day, the stats quickly go downhill. All in all, however, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is playing a great tournament, and a title would logically be the icing on the cake.
He hasn’t played Alex De Minaur in around two years, and I’ve only been able to find four matches between them. The score is 2:2, but the two matches that took place on hard court went to the Australian.
So let’s take a look at our sports betting apps. The average odds vary considerably, with De Minaur going into the final as the favorite at 1.35 to 2.70.
The Australian, who lost to Novak Djokovic in four sets in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, reached the final in Washington in 2018, but lost in straight sets to Alexander Zverev.
Will he now win his first title? The 26-year-old started the tournament with a 7-6, 6-2 win over Bu Yunchaokete, followed by an absolute thriller in the round of 16: a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 victory over Jiri Lehecka!
It was a victory that took a lot of energy, but from then on, De Minaur didn’t drop another set. He beat Brandon Nakashima 6-4, 6-4 and Corentin Moutet 6-4, 6-3 to seal his place in the final. However, it wasn’t as if the Sydney-born pro dominated his opponents.
5-5-5? That’s the number of break points his opponents had against him, with his last three rivals all having exactly five. What was impressive in the last two matches was his own tally of nine out of 13.
My Davidovich Fokina – De Minaur tip
Alex De Minaur is the favorite. There’s no doubt about that. But I have shown in my analysis that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina cannot be defeated in a final just like that.
Accordingly, I expect a close encounter in which the favorite will have to stretch himself to the limit to actually win the title in the end.
I don’t expect a smooth victory. My Davidovich Fokina De Minaur tip is therefore: Fokina will win at least one set!
