ATP tournament in Montpellier, final, Sunday, 04.02.2024
Almost even odds for the grand final of the ATP tournament in Montpellier. Not an easy task for me as a tipster at first glance, especially as the two top 50 players Borna Coric and Alexander Bublik have only faced each other on grass so far.
In Halle last year, Bublik clearly prevailed in the first round and later also won a 500 tournament for the first time in his career. 250 points are now up for grabs on Sunday in the south of France. In my Coric Bublik tip, I take a look at the best bets and give you a strong match bet from Tipwin
We have followed up on the 250 tournament in Montpellier. After my successful “2:0 win without tiebreak” tip for Holger Rune’s match against Pablo Llamas Ruiz, our expert came up with a 2:0 tip for Rune’s match against Michal Mmoh, which was also correct with a final score of 7-6, 6-4.
The third strike was the Coric set win bet against the high-flyer from Denmark.
For the final, I now want to make the tournament in the south of France golden with another bet winner. Bublik dispatched Coric 6-3, 6-1 in their first meeting. Will the final be as fast as the first round in Halle?
The best bookmakers are not expecting that. The bookmakers expect an extremely close match and give both players the same odds. Bet365 offers 1.87 for Bublik and Coric to win.
The odds for two sets are therefore also quite high at 1.64, while those betting on three sets can pick up 2.10. While Bet365 is one of the few betting providers with a tennis betting configurator and has an outstanding sports betting app, Tipwin scores with the over/under match bets.
I find the “Over 21.5 games” odds particularly lucrative for the final Sunday. After all, 1.50 odds beckon. Not even a tiebreak would be necessary for a two-set outcome. Those who choose a line above that can look forward to 1.75.
Bublik’s tournament record to date also speaks for many matches. The 26-year-old, who won the tournament in 2022, had to play three sets in all three matches and had a complicated path to the final with Danis Shapovalov, Alexander Shevchenko and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The successes have given him confidence after the surprising first round exit in Melbourne. He was still in good form in Adelaide, reaching the semi-finals after defeating Daniel Evans and Lorenzo Musetti.
Coric was also unable to create fond memories at the Australian Open 2024; after playing in the United Cup, he had a tough task with Frances Tiafoe to start Down Under, losing in four sets.
He then took part in the Challenger tournament in Ottignies, Belgium, missing out on the title by a hair’s breadth in the final against Leandro Riedi. His record in Montpellier has been flawless so far, winning against Pedro Martinez and Flavio Cobolli in two sets without a tie-break.
He also got off to a brilliant start against Holger Rune in the semi-finals. The second set was also almost wrapped up before Boris Becker’s protégé had to retire. I definitely think he has an advantage in terms of form for the final.
A lot will also depend on the Kazakh’s serving form on Sunday, as he is not afraid to take risks in the second set and produces the odd double fault. He currently has 39 aces and 18 double faults in the 250 tournament and has conceded a total of eight breaks.
Coric has a record of eleven aces without double faults and only had to concede one service game against Rune. His development on his first serve in the days in Montpellier was remarkable, he improved from 57 percent to 67 percent to 83 percent successful first serves in the semi-finals
My Coric Bublik tip
Coric vs Bublik, on grass it was a quick number, this time I expect a longer match with hardly any lost service games. In the decisive rounds of the tournament, the Kazakh has always been able to keep his double-fault rate within limits.
His opponent also serves strongly, has only conceded one break in Montpellier and recently had an incredible 83 percent success rate on first serves. After three quick matches, he should be a little fresher than Bublik in the final and his performance is more consistent overall.
If I had to pick a winner, I would definitely prefer the Coric bet. But I’d rather go for the match to go at least 22 games, like all Bublik matches these days.
My Coric Bublik bet: Over 21.5 games
