Australian Open 2022, Round of 16, Sunday, 23.01.2022
The Australian Open 2022 is slowly but surely heading into the Round of 16 – and that means: Now, for the most part, it’s no longer David and Goliath facing each other, but two players who are roughly equal in the world rankings!
In the case of Pablo Carreno Busta and Matteo Berrettini, I can anticipate and say: We will probably not see a clear, quick victory here. Both have had their problems in the course of the tournament and have lost some energy.
In the direct duel, which is taking place for the very first time, the Italian is favoured by the bookmakers. Is that only because of the world ranking? Find out now in my Carreno Busta Berrettini tip!
A smooth victory, a real thriller and a challenging third win – that’s probably the best way to describe Pablo Carreno Busta’s journey at this Australian Open. In his 1st round match against Tomas Etcheverry, he only had slight problems towards the end at 6-1, 6-2, 7-6.
Tallon Griekspoor, however, demanded everything from him afterwards. The Spaniard fought for hours until he could secure a 6-3, 6-7, 7-6, 3-6, 6-4. It was also a close match in round 3 against the American top talent Sebastian Korda.
This time, Carreno Busta only needed four sets, but did not always make the safest impression at 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-6. He was lucky that his young opponent could only take two of the 13 break chances.
In 2018 and 2019, he has already reached the last 16 in Melbourne, but lost to Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori respectively. Ranked sixth and ninth, both opponents were top-ranked then, just as Matteo Berrettini is now.
The Italian is ranked seventh, Carreno Busta himself is number 21. The fact that Berrettini is still in the tournament at all is a surprise to many. He was plagued by health problems against Brando Nakashima at 4-6, 6-2, 7-6, 6-3.
Stefan Kozlov also managed to take a set from him (6-1, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1). In the 3rd round, it came to a hot fight with the young Carlos Alcaraz.
With 6-2 and 7-6, Berrettini won the first two sets, but then dropped two 2-6 un6 4-6. He took the decisive fifth, of course, in a tiebreak. He won three tiebreaks in his three rounds, so he has his nerves under control.
Breaks, on the other hand, he uses too seldom, as we know from the Roman. He has had the opportunity 35 times so far, but has only been able to capitalise on it twelve times. He has never played against Carreno Busta, but with odds of around 1.42, he will do so as the favourite.
My Carreno Busta Berrettini Tip
How far is Matteo Berrettini ahead of Pablo Carreno Busta? I think the Italian is a bit stronger, but I also have a lot of confidence in his opponent. Both of them have had to work hard in the tournament so far.
To win the final fifth set against Carlos Alcaraz, 2:0 down, was a huge mental challenge. Carreno Busta, however, kept Sebastian Korda in check, and not everyone can do that either.
My tip: Four sets at least!
