ATP Tournament in Bastad, Quarterfinals, Friday, 18.07.2025, 12:10 p.m.
Nothing going on in the ATP Tour? No way! Admittedly, after two Grand Slam tournaments in a row, the big names are taking a breather. But that opens up even greater opportunities for those who don’t always finish at the top – and that includes Filip Misolic.
The Austrian is in pretty good shape at the moment and responds brilliantly when he falls behind. Accordingly, I’m going to be bold with my Carabelli Misolic tip and tell you why I think the Graz native, who is considered an underdog according to the world rankings, will emerge victorious.
Filip Misolic continues to delight his fans – or should I say, once again? After his fantastic French Open, where he stormed into the third round as a qualifier (losing to Novak Djokovic), he went on to win the Challenger in Poznan.
At Wimbledon, which cannot be considered a failure, he made it through qualifying before losing in four sets to Jan-Lennard Struff. He also did well in the Braunschweig Challenger, reaching the semifinals.
Mariano Navone was the first to slow down the 23-year-old, who lost in three sets. I definitely see Misolic as one of the favorites at the current tournament in Bastad, Sweden, because he is in good form.
Before the start of the tournament on Swedish soil, Misolic was ranked 105th in the world, but in a few days he should be able to celebrate a double-digit ranking again.
However, as this is NOT yet the case, Misolic started once again in the qualifiers. After victories over Radu Albot and Olle Wallin, both without losing a set, he started against Elmer Möller in the main draw.
6-3, 3-6, 7-5, Misolic, who was born in Graz, had to fight hard but came through. Room for improvement: he unnecessarily gave his opponent 14 break points. He was able to minimize that number in the round of 16.
Against Nuno Borges, seeded third in Bastad, the Austrian lost the first set 3-6. That didn’t affect his nerves, though, as he turned the tables and advanced with a 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 victory.
All his service statistics improved significantly. 66% of his first serves were successful, and he won 75% of the points. His second serve percentage was also not bad at 66%.
“It means a lot to me, especially to win against the defending champion. It was a very difficult match, I couldn’t find my game and tried to stay in it. After that, I played well, especially in the third set. I’m happy about the win. No one expected me to turn it around,” said the happy winner.
At 5-6 and 0:40, he saved three match points in the second set – you have to be pretty tough to do that. So it’s no surprise that he is the slight favorite going into his match against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
His opponent in the quarterfinals is ranked 59th in the world, well ahead of Misolic. The odds are 1.85 to 1.95 for the player in red and white.
Incidentally, these two played each other not too long ago in Bucharest, with Misolic winning 6-3, 6-1, also on clay. In 2023, the Austrian also won their qualifying match in Miami, again in straight sets.
So if you want to take a big risk, just bet on a third 2-0 victory. Bet365 is offering attractive odds of 3.25. You are also encouraged to take advantage of the bonus to play for betting credits of up to $100.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is high up on the seedings list in Bastad. He took part in this tournament for the first time last year, but was knocked out in the opening round. Side note: Misolic only played in Bastad in 2023, reaching the quarter-finals.
The Argentine’s current place in the last eight was not necessarily predictable. Roland Garros, Queens, and Mallorca: he failed in the first round three times in a row—and that didn’t change at Wimbledon (6-7, 6-7, 3-6 against Marcos Giron).
In Bastad, he got off to a good start with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Cristian Garin, but shortly afterwards encountered his first minor problems in a 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 against Botic van de Zandschulp. He gave away a whopping 25 break points to both opponents!
The service stats, which might be interesting for you, are comparable to those from the Misolic round of 16. If both players end up giving away breaks galore, at least the spectators get their money’s worth!
My Carabelli Misolic tip
From an Austrian perspective, I am of course keeping my fingers crossed for Filip Misolic. It has been a pleasure to watch the Graz native for several weeks now. The results are good, and even losing sets don’t throw him off his game.
His opponent, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, is not in top form. Accordingly, I’m going to ignore the world rankings completely and say:
Misolic will do it!
