BMW Open in Munich, Round of 16, Thursday, 17.04.2025, 1:20 p.m.
All eyes at the 2025 BMW Open are on Alexander Zverev – but from a German perspective, the real story so far has been written by someone else. Diego Dedura-Palomero is the name of the man who was virtually unknown before this tournament.
The 17-year-old has sensationally reached the quarterfinals, and everything that comes now is a bonus. He goes into the match as the clear underdog, but that certainly won’t bother him. In my Bergs Dedura-Palomero tip, I’ll tell you why I’m betting on the underdog to win a set.
“I can’t believe it and I can’t put it into words. I’m so happy. I told myself: Just have fun, enjoy the atmosphere. It’s crazy. I want to thank my mom, who is watching at home, and my brother.”
These were the words of the crowd in the stands. The words of a 17-year-old who had just celebrated the greatest success of his young career. Allow us to introduce Diego Dedura-Palomeroa – there’s no shame in not having heard much about this young man yet!
The world number 549 has big dreams in the world of tennis and can already add a place in the round of 16 in Munich to his list of achievements. He beat Mackenzie Mcdonald (6-3, 6-1) in the qualifiers before facing Alexander Bublik.
He lost 3-6, 3-6, which was no disgrace given the experience of his opponent. However, Gael Monfils’ withdrawal meant he moved up as a lucky loser, and on the other side of the draw he faced another really good player in Denis Shapovalov.
The youngster won the first set in a tiebreak, and shortly afterwards Shapovalov gave up at 7-6, 3-0 from the German’s point of view. He didn’t let his opponent break once and showed no nerves whatsoever.
It’s relatively difficult for me to summarize the last few months because Dedura-Palomero didn’t compete on the big stage. He played a few Challengers, but hardly any victories.
The BMW Open has never seen him on court before – no wonder, as the 1.78m tall newcomer is only 17 years old. Accordingly, he has no experience with Zizou Bergs.
Our tax-free bookmakers, understandably, see Dedura-Palomero as the clear underdog. In terms of odds, that means Bergs goes into the match with average odds of 1.09 to 6.00, which is clear.
Zizou Bergs will know that everyone expects him to win, but the crowd will not be on his side. The Belgian faced Alexander Bublik in the first round, the same opponent who knocked Dedura-Palomero out of qualifying.
However, Bergs had to fight hard to get through, eventually winning 6-7, 6-4, 7-5. It was an absolute tour de force that took a lot out of him – which will play into the German’s hands.
The world number 50 has not had a bad year in 2024 and now wants to achieve a good result in his Munich debut. His recent impressions in Monte Carlo were less successful, with Fabian Marozsan ending his run in the first round.
Previously in Miami, he had beaten Andrey Rublev. Interestingly, his last eight matches have featured five tiebreaks. Since Dedura-Palomero also played one against Shapovalov, you can also aim for a tiebreak on Thursday.
At Bet365, this bet will get you odds of 3.25. In February, Bergs managed to win more than two matches in a tournament only once. So it’s not as if he’s in absolute top form.
My Bergs Dedura-Palomero tip
How long can Diego Dedura-Palomero keep dreaming his dream? The teenager slipped into the main draw as a lucky loser and sensationally sent Denis Shapovalov home. Zizou Bergs should not be unbeatable.
The Belgian is ranked in the top 50 in the world, but his recent results have not been convincing enough for me to see him as having a clear advantage. Since the young German also has the crowd behind him, my prediction is:
Dedura-Palomero will win in straight sets!
