Australian Open in Melbourne, 3rd round, Saturday, 20.01.2024
That was close! Daniil Medvedev had probably already packed his bags in his head, but then he avoided early embarrassment at the Australian Open 2024 and advanced to the 3rd round.
He wants to be more consistent on Saturday, but his opponent has certainly not become any easier. Why is he still clearly ahead with the bookmakers?
That’s what I want to find out in my Auger Aliassime Medvedev betting tip and I’ll also reveal why I’m going for over 3.5 sets at odds of 1.83 at Bet-at-Home
It was 3.39 a.m. local time when Daniil Medvedev was finally allowed to say: “I just want to go to sleep. That’s all.” He stood there on the court for almost four and a half hours, barely avoiding elimination.
His opponent, Emil Ruusuvuori, had demanded everything from him, even winning the first two sets. So the score was 3-6, 6-7 when Medvedev knew: “If I don’t pull myself together now, the first major of the year will be over again.
He took heart and managed to level the score thanks to a 6-4, 7-6. The fifth set had to be decisive, and now he had cracked Ruusuvuori. A quick 6-0 ended a match that would have deserved two winners.
The Russian had an incredible 18 break chances and was lucky that his opponent was only able to capitalize on five of them. There were already eight against Terence Atame in the first round, even though only three sets were played
Medvedev had progressed here with a 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 1-0 win, benefiting from his opponent’s early retirement. He should know exactly what he needs to improve in order to reach the final like he did in 2021 and 2022.
He should also know exactly what he needs to do: It was a year ago that he dropped out in the 3rd round and lost outright to Sebastian Korda. Should the same thing happen to him on Saturday? The direct comparison clearly speaks against it.
Felix Auger Aliassime is one of his absolute favorite opponents, and Medvedev has won all six duels so far. He was also the one to record two victories in 2023
Two years ago, the two even met here in Melbourne, where Medvedev won 6-7, 3-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4. A victory after trailing 0:2, so the world no. 3 has experience of that this year too.
According to the best betting providers such as Betano, he will prevail at the weekend anyway, at least that’s what average odds of 1.13 to 5.00 suggest. So no chance for Felix Auger-Aliassime?
The Canadian, who has dropped several places in the last two years and is now only ranked 30th, is aware of his potential, but also of the fact that he now calls on it far too rarely
After his 6-3, 7-5, 6-7, 5-7, 6-3, against Dominic Thiem, he made it a little less exciting in his 2nd round, but he didn’t get through without losing a set against Hugo Grenier either.
This time it was 6-1, 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, so Auger only slipped up very briefly. Had he not only converted eight out of 20 break chances, the match might have been over even earlier.
Ten double faults against Thiem, eight against Grenier? His performances were not really that confident after all. This is only the second time since the French Open 2022 that he has been allowed to play a 3rd round at a Grand Slam, which shows how his last few years have gone.
If you’re wondering whether the Australian Open is the Canadian’s favorite major? At least the last time he did NOT reach the round of 16 was four years ago, which is a pretty good record
My Auger Aliassime Medvedev tip
How well rested will Daniil Medvedev be after his night session against Emil Ruusuvuori? The Russian had his hands full, the five sets must have taken their toll on him.
But now a favorite opponent is waiting for him in Felix Auger Aliassime, someone against whom he has really won all his matches. In my opinion, the big question will be how powerful Medvedev will be.
After his first two appearances, I honestly can’t imagine that he’ll get through without any problems on Saturday. That’s why I’ve decided on the following tip:
Three sets are not enough here!
