ATP Finals, Group Stage, Thursday, 17.11.2022
It’s all to play for at the ATP Finals: who will grab the second spot in the semi-finals? Casper Ruud is through, Rafael Nadal is out. So far so good, but whether Taylor Fritz or Felix Auger-Aliassime will be among the top four players at the ATP Finals has yet to be determined.
Both have won once and lost once, so the following applies in the direct duel: Whoever wins here stays in the competition and reaches the semi-finals right away in the first finals! Which player do the bookmakers see in front?
Not only at Bet3000 it is the Canadian who is ahead with average odds of 1,65 to 2,25. In my Auger-Alisssime Fritz tip I now reveal why I suspect a close match that will go into a tiebreak at least once!
He is the man of the moment in the world elite, surely he won’t be eliminated in the preliminary round at the finals? Behind Felix Auger-Aliassime lies another turbulent, but all the more successful year in 2022.
So far, we have known the Canadian like this: He plays great matches, but can’t control his nerves at all. He always loses finals, and he is never free from defeats against absolute underdogs.
He took home three trophies in the last few weeks, and suddenly he was playing better than ever. And so it happened that Auger-Aliassime travelled to Turin for his first finals as one of the favourites.
In the first match he faced Casper Ruud. Both had a hot fight, there was only one break chance in the whole match. But it went to Ruud, who made the most of it and won by a razor-thin margin 7-6, 6-4.
So Auger was under a lot of pressure when Rafael Nadal was waiting at the net. Of course, the much younger player knew the Spaniard’s fitness level. Nevertheless, his 6-3, 6-4 was really strong.
He fended off all five of Nadal’s break chances, hit 15 aces and won 81% on his first serve. He needs to improve on the second, though, where we could only count 44%.
Now he has pushed the door wide open towards the semi-finals, he “only” has to win against Taylor Fritz. At the ATP Cup in Australia, right at the beginning of the year, the two faced each other directly for the first time.
6-7, 6-4, 6-4, it was Fritz who prevailed in a real thriller. Is there a chance that we can expect such a never-ending match on Thursday? The German betting companies, at least, are expecting a close affair.
1,65 to 2,25, the tendency goes in the direction of the Canadian. For Taylor Fritz, however, it’s exactly the same, one win and he’s among the top four players in the finals.
He started his tournament with a 7-6, 6-1 against Rafael Nadal, here he was similarly strong as Auger-Aliassime. His service was a little bit better, and he didn’t give away a single break opportunity.
Afterwards, the US-American obviously thought: “Why don’t I just play like Felix Auger-Aliassime, then the direct duel will be even more difficult to assess! Against Casper Ruud, the match was on a knife’s edge.
The score was 3-6, 6-4 when the final set went into a tiebreak. Fritz lost the tiebreak and now has to play Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final.
Winning clearly against Nadal, losing by a razor-thin margin against Ruud, that’s the record of both players.
Taylor Fritz or Felix Auger-Aliassime, who will show the better nerves on Thursday?
As I could see quite quickly in my analysis, both show quite similar performances in the finals.
Both took a win against Rafael Nadal, were very close losers against Casper Ruud. In the only direct duel at the beginning of the year, they played for hours, the American prevailed by a blink of an eye.
In my eyes, it is hardly possible to identify a clear favourite here. Both players impressed me with their serves, and since a win automatically leads to the semi-finals, I expect a highly intense match. My tip is therefore:
There will be at least one tiebreak!
