ATP Tournament in Geneva, Quarterfinals, Thursday, 22.05.2025, 6:00 p.m.
Just a month ago, Matteo Arnaldi made life really difficult for Novak Djokovic. In the second round in Madrid, the Italian beat the most successful player of all time in straight sets, handing him his second defeat in a row.
In my Arnaldi Djokovic tip, I expect the record Grand Slam winner to be in better form so close to the French Open, but to come under pressure again from the courageous Arnaldi and lose at least one set. Traditional betting provider Oddset has the perfect odds.
Two defeats in a row are not all that common in Djokovic’s career, and it’s been a while since he last suffered two in a row. He turned professional in the same year that Michael Schumacher dominated Formula 1 with Ferrari. We’re talking about two decades here.
But the “Djoker,” who has now won everything there is to win (including Olympic gold in 2024), wants to go for it again in 2025 and bag his 25th major title.
He wants to make his next attempt in Paris after having to withdraw from the Australian Open due to injury in the semi-finals against Alexander Zverev. But his form raises questions. He was still in the Masters final in Miami on hard court, but then lost to Alejandro Tabilo in Monaco.
He had already had a difficult start on home turf, but a few weeks later he suffered another 3-6, 4-6 defeat against Arnaldi. Nevertheless, he is one of the favorites behind Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in Paris at our PayPal betting providers, but already has significantly higher odds.
He manages to hit top form in three-set matches and generally at the big tournaments. His current form will only become apparent against Arnaldi.
Djokovic had a fairly easy draw to start with in Geneva in Marton Fucsovics. The Hungarian is struggling with his form, has long since dropped out of the top 100 and was no match for Djokovic.
Djokovic impressed with a strong first serve percentage of 73 percent and took every second point off his opponent on the return.
He didn’t allow a single break point, with Fucsovics winning just ten of 38 points when the Serb had to serve.
Djokovic (1.30) is now also the clear favorite against Arnaldi (3.40). The difference in odds is so big that we are getting strong odds of 1.90 for the underdog to win a single set. I have deliberately used quotation marks. Because is he really the underdog?
I get the impression that the high-flyer aura is resonating in the bets on Djokovic’s matches. Admittedly, I have underestimated the Serb from time to time in the past, but at the same time I have hit some great odds when I have bet against him.
The 1.90 for Arnaldi to win the set seems way too high to me. Sure, Djokovic had a strong start, but he didn’t face much of a challenge against a struggling Fucsovics. I expect more from his quarterfinal opponent, just like in Madrid.
The 24-year-old impressed with his aggressive groundstrokes and didn’t drop a single service game against Fabian Marozsan in the last round. Arnaldi was very consistent, winning 70 and 71 percent of points on his first and second serves. The only thing he still struggles with is consistency.
Arnaldi sometimes plays brilliantly, but then he also fails in the first round, as he just did in Rome. There, he was eliminated by Roberto Bautista Agut. On the other hand, he reached the quarterfinals at the previous Masters tournament in Madrid.
He has won at least one set in his last twelve matches. Apart from Agut, only Jack Draper managed to get through without dropping a set. He played Djokovic for the first time in the Spanish capital.
He therefore leads their head-to-head record 1-0. With another win, he could join the ranks of four players who have managed to beat Djokovic multiple times without losing a match.
My Arnaldi Djokovic tip
Arnaldi was clearly the better player in the first match and delivered a strong performance against Marozsan in the last round. He also had the Hungarian, who is currently in much better form, to face rather than Djokovic, who was up against the world number 134.
The performance of the man who is chasing one record after another is difficult to assess, but in any case it was better than in his last defeat against Arnaldi. But will it be enough this time to keep the aggressive Italian at bay?
I think that the world number 39 will cause Djokovic problems again with exactly this style and, after the smooth 2-0 defeat in Madrid, will at least be able to win one set!
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My Arnaldi Djokovic prediction: Set win Arnaldi
