Madrid Open 2023, Final, Sunday, 07.05.2023
It’s a fairy tale that is now waiting for its absolute completion: Jan-Lennard Struff is actually in the final of the Madrid Open 2023! With such a result, he will not be angry with me, really no one had expected in advance.
On Sunday, he will face none other than the defending champion in the Spanish capital, arguably the best, most complete player in the world right now. Struff’s role at Bwin? Of course, that of the glaring underdog.
But from a German perspective, I think it’s fair to say: It doesn’t matter at all whether he’s the underdog or not, he copes perfectly well with this role. In my Alcaraz Struff tip I now reveal why I don’t expect a too clear result!
Where exactly does one start to analyze the surprising success story of Jan-Lennard Struff? First of all, the 33-year-old should be congratulated, because what he has accomplished here in Madrid, really no one had on the cards.
In 2022, he went through deep valleys full of injuries and setbacks, and in the world rankings, even the top 100 was suddenly no longer realistic. His plans for 2023? They were very ambitious. And rightly so, as the current situation shows.
Struff already showed his best side in Monte Carlo in April, celebrating straightforward victories over Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud and reaching the quarterfinals. In Madrid, however, he is no longer satisfied with half measures.
As (still!) number 65 in the world, the Warsteiner-born player had to start in the qualifiers, which he finally made it through. How? As a lucky loser, because after his defeat against Aslan Karatsev only a rejection lifted him into the main draw!
6-3, 6-1 against Lorenzo Sonego, a true show of power was the cornerstone of his current success. Struff followed it up with a 4-6, 7-6, 7-5 against Ben Shelton, and at the latest now the experts knew: Monte Carlo was no one-hit wonder!
Dusan Lajovic, currently in absolute top form, tried to stop the German run, but he too was sent home with a 6-7, 6-3, 6-3. Tight matches in three sets including tiebreak?
Struff stayed true to that line in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 loss to Pedro Cachin and finally earned the cracker against Stefanos Tsitsipas. As if he would win day in, day out against these greats, he kept his cool.
The underdog snatched a 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, could hardly believe the triumph. Now it was only one step to the final! Aslan Karatsev sounded like a relatively easy opponent, but Struff knew: “I already lost to him in the qualifying.
His nerves held and he prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. The last five matches all went over three sets, and three times he came back strongly despite being down 1-0 at one point.
Struff is averaging 80% of points won on first serve, with 29 aces in the last two matches alone. Seven breaks allowed in six matches of the main round, that is also strong.
Never before has a lucky loser reached the final of a major Masters, and Struff himself has never been so far ahead in a 1000-match tournament. Even if he loses the final, the veteran will be the new number 28 in the world.
If he even wins, he will climb up to No. 21. He knows, of course, that playing against the best Spanish player in the world rankings in Madrid? The fans won’t exactly be on his side, and neither will our betting providers.
The odds show an average of 1.06 to 9.50, could not be clearer. But be careful, there was something! In 2022 at Wimbledon, Alcaraz fought his way to a damn close 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, almost getting knocked out!
Two years ago, Struff had even prevailed with an emphatic 6-4, 7-6, 6-2. The Spaniard should therefore know that he cannot take this final lightly.
He will remember back to 2022 when he triumphed here against Alexander Zverev, so an opponent from Germany seems to suit him. In any case, he hasn’t had any difficulties to report at the Madrid Open.
Curiously, he lost the first set of the tournament, but still won against Emil Ruusuvuori 2:6, 6:4, 6:2. After his 6:2, 7:6 against Grigor Dimitrov, we were eagerly waiting for the duel with Alexander Zverev.
Unfortunately, at least from the German point of view, this match was over in no time, Alcaraz collected a 6-1, 6-2 in passing. He didn’t have to leave many forces behind, but at least things got a bit tighter for once at 6-4, 7-5 against Karen Khachanov.
In the semi-finals Corna Coric could not stop him, after a 6-4, 6-3 the final was set. Already in Indian Wells and Barcelona the super talent grabbed the trophy at the end, how do you want to stop him now?
In Rio, Cameron Norrie achieved the feat in the final, but now Alcaraz is playing at home. He broke his opponents five times, a rate reminiscent of Struff. He is eight centimeters shorter than the German, but does that put him at a disadvantage?
Only once did he manage to win more than 80% of the points on his first serve, and here the German has his nose in front! Struff also leads in terms of aces, serving with a bit more pressure.
Is Germany getting a new number 1 in the tennis circus? One way or another, Jan-Lennard Struff will break into the top 30.The fact that the Lucky Loser has now actually made it to the final is actually unbelievable.
On the Spanish clay, he shines with his service, his strong nerves and comeback qualities. Of course, Carlos Alcaraz is a prodigy who has already won several major titles in 2023 and is also the defending champion.
But I have a lot of confidence in Struff, because he has nothing to lose. And even if he loses in the end, he’s sure to win praise and recognition. My tip is therefore for a rather close match and is:
We’ll see more than 19,5 games!
