US Open in New York, semi-finals, Saturday, 09/09/2023
High class duel in the semifinals of the US Open, the number one seed meets the three seed. Carlos Alcaraz will be challenged by Daniil Medvedev. So the last two US Open champions will meet each other.
The last two matches went clearly to the Spaniard. However, Medvedev played a strong tournament until the semi-finals. Who will get the ticket to the final? I will go into that in my Alcaraz Medvedev tip.
Carlos Alcaraz against Novak Djokovic is currently the best the tennis world has to offer. At Wimbledon, the two stars played out an unforgettable final, the first ever at the Grand Slam level.
If the record Grand Slam winner solves his compulsory task against US newcomer Ben Shelton, Alcaraz can ensure another top final.
To do so, he will have to take on the 2021 US Open triumphant, who defeated the giant Djokovic outright in three sets that year.
The odds speak for themselves. Anything other than an advancement of Alcaraz (1.29) is almost like a sensation. Medvedev gets a 4.00 from Betano.
2021 Medvedev was able to defeat Alcaraz, who was still 18 years old at the time. However, the Spaniard has developed massively in recent years and returned the favor two years after the Wimbledon exit.
They played the final in Indian Wells in 2023, an emphatic 6-3, 6-2 for the man from El Palmar, who calmly took all three break chances and with stable service rates on his own service left nothing to be desired.
At that time, he successfully brought 80 percent of all first serves over the net. Medvedev also reached a high 75 percent, but the defensive strong Alcaraz won every second point after his first serve.
Without losing a set or a tiebreak, he also swept Medvedev off the court at Wimbledon a few months later. As in the night from Friday to Saturday at the US Open, they met in the semifinals.
The final score was 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, he took six service games from Medvedev and only had to concede a break twice even when the Russian had only four break chances.
Medvedev is especially vulnerable on the second serve. In the Wimbledon match, he won only 30 percent of the points. This trend continued in New York as well.
Against Rublev it was only nine out of 19 points, against De Minaur and Baez in the rounds before 41 percent. Again and again double faults crept into his game.
In a match against Alcaraz, no player can afford these mistakes. But even the Spaniard is not infallible. Apart from the stricken Germans Alexander Zverev and Dominik Koepfer, every player managed at least one break.
Medvedev should also manage a few on his parade surface. He is also the strongest return player on tour with a 165.6 rating, using 46.6 percent of his break opportunities, more than any other pro.
So Medvedev has good chances? I would clearly disagree with that, the last duels show the big difference in performance. Moreover, the Russian is currently much too vulnerable in his service games.
In the last three rounds alone, he had 31 break points against him. In any case, he is likely to lose more service games than Alcaraz and thus also the match.
I don’t trust him to win more than one set, which is why the -1.5 set handicap for Alcaraz would be a logical bet. Bwin is offering lucrative odds at 1.53.
My Alcaraz Medvedev tip
Alcaraz is the stronger player, he clearly proved that in the last duels. In the last five sets against Medvedev, he has conceded a maximum of three game wins to the Russian.
At the US Open, the 27-year-old is also struggling with his second serve, giving away too many points with careless errors and is also easily upset in a bad phase.
I see the world number one clearly in front, but I’m not going for 3:0, because the Spaniard is always good for a set loss. In Cincinnati alone, all his matches went the full length of the match. Therefore, I decide for the following bet.
My US Open Halbfianal tip: Alcaraz wins against Medvedev with -1,5 set handicap
