ATP Finals in Turin, group stage, match day 3, Friday, 17.11.2023
One is already safely through, the other still has to fight for his ticket to the semi-finals: how will this affect the dynamics of the pairing? At the ATP Finals in Turin, we have now reached the hot phase of the preliminary round.
On the third and final match day, the action will be intense once again, with Carlos Alcaraz desperate to avoid an early exit on Friday. Since he started the tournament with a defeat, only a win will do.
And it’s not just our best sports betting providers who believe he can do just that.
In my Alcaraz Medvedev betting tip, I will also reveal why I will be backing the youngster to win
He’s already won the finals of the Next Generation competition, now he wants to win the title on the big stage! Carlos Alcaraz has traveled to Turin with great ambitions and is experiencing everything there for the first time.
After a very strong year overall, he has made a somewhat tired impression in recent weeks, the results have not been quite as confident and reliable as they were in the summer.
All the more reason for him to focus on the finals, which got off to the worst possible start for him. He suffered a 7-6, 3-4, 4-6 defeat against Alexander Zverev and was under noticeable pressure in the second match
However, he withstood this with flying colors, celebrating a smooth 7-5, 6-2 win against Andrey Rublev. He didn’t give the Russian a single chance to break, and the 94% of points he won on his first serve were particularly strong.
He improved his performance considerably compared to his duel with Alexander Zverev and didn’t make a single double fault. But of course Alcaraz also knows that Andrey Rublev did not have a good day.
Enraged by his own performance, he even bruised his own knee, so as good as the victory was in the end, it is important not to overestimate it. Friday will be the decisive day for the Spaniard
It’s obvious: If he wins against Daniil Medvedev, he will progress, regardless of what Alexander Zverev does against Andrey Rublev at the same time. The two top stars have already met three times in 2023, with Alcaraz leading 2:1.
However, the most recent duel, which took place at the US Open, went 3:1 to the Russian. For the bookmakers, however, it is Alcaraz who is ahead in the odds, with Bet365 also showing an average of 1.60 to 2.30.
Word has of course got around that Medvedev could have an easy run-out, as the world number 3 has already secured his ticket to the semi-finals. In his fifth finals in a row, he seems to know exactly what it’s all about
In the two participations that ended after the preliminary round, he lost all three group matches, but in 2020 and 2021 he won all of them up to the final. Three years ago, he even won the title.
After his current 6-4, 6-2 win over compatriot Andrey Rublev to open the tournament, Medvedev faced his favorite opponent from Germany, Alexander Zverev. And it turned out as it always does these days: he prevailed!
He could call a 7-6, 6-4 win his own, so it was close, but Medvedev was on hand in the decisive moments. He made the most of three out of four break chances, but in neither of the two matches did he allow his opponent to break.
The match lasted one and three-quarter hours and the first match point found its way into the goal. So the Russian has already secured his place in the semi-finals, no matter what he delivers against Carlos Alcaraz
My Alcaraz Medvedev tip
One must win, the other can take it easy! It’s these curious third group matches at the finals that are difficult to predict.
Daniil Medvedev is already safely through to the semi-finals, having celebrated two straight wins without conceding a single break. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, got off to a slower start, but the Spaniard was his usual confident self against Andrey Rublev.
In my opinion, the two stars are more or less on an equal footing. However, as I believe that Alcaraz really wants to be in the top four in his first finals and Medvedev can serve quite relaxed, I’ll go with the youngster and say:
Alcaraz wins against Medvedev!
