ATP Shanghai Masters, Round of 16, Wednesday, 10/11/2023
Carlos Alcaraz has never come close to winning at the Shanghai Masters! Admittedly, the beginning of my analysis is not to be taken completely seriously, because: since 2019 was not allowed to serve here, and at that time the number 2 in the world was only 16 years old!
So now the Spanish prodigy is attacking for the first time at this major tournament, facing a thoroughly challenging opponent in the round of 16. Favorite? Of course, he is still the favorite at Bwin! In my Alcaraz Dimitrov tip, I now reveal why I’m also betting on a 2:0 win!
Wherever Carlos Alcaraz competes, he has to cope with the huge pressure of being the top favorite for the title! Once again, that’s the case for his debut in Shanghai, which won’t take place until 2023 due to Corona.
After his surprising exit in the semifinals of the US Open (1:3 loss to Daniil Medvedev), he went on the road in Asia, first calling the tournament in Beijing. After a strong start, Alcaraz lost the semifinals at the decisive moment.
Yannick Hanfmann, Lorenzo Musetti and Casper Ruud had still been beaten without losing a set, but Jannik Sinner, the eventual champion, was a number too big at 6-7, 1-6, especially in the second set.
All the greater is now the motivation to do much better in Shanghai. There, Alcaraz had no problems at all with his match against Gregoire Barrere, coming to an unchallenged 6-2, 7-5.
Against Daniel Evans, Alcaraz won 7-6, 6-4, here he had to push his limits much more. He could only use three of his 15 break chances and could have decided the match much earlier.
What about previous duels against Grigor Dimitrov? The two have played each other three times so far, two encounters took place in 2023. The interim result? It couldn’t be clearer!
The favorite has won three times, which is not a good omen for his Bulgarian opponent. Another interesting fact is that all three results did not feature a tiebreak.
If we look at the average odds of our betting providers, we can see anyway that Alcaraz is clearly ahead with a 1.20 to 4.50. So whether Grigor Dimitrov will have no chance at all?
The 32-year-old will have to have an absolutely great day if he really wants to progress against Alcaraz. He started his Asian trip in Chengdu, where he was beaten by Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
A little later in Beijing, he had to play tougher opponents, after wins over Mackenzie McDonald and Holger Rune, he failed to beat eventual champion Jannik Sinner 4-6, 6-3, 2-6 after a great fight.
After all, Dimitrov was one of two opponents to take a set off Sinner at this tournament. So now he wants to convince in Shanghai, got into the rhythm quite well with a 6-4, 6-3 against Aleksandar Vukic.
He also progressed smoothly against Karen Khachanov, where the Bulgarian secured a close 7-6, 6-4. He did not concede a break in either match, so the service is coming along quite well.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, gave his two opponents the opportunity to break 13 times! Even though the world No. 2 eventually fended off ten of them, Dimitrov was slightly ahead of him in this statistic.
My Alcaraz Dimitrov Tip
Carlos Alcaraz as a round of 16 opponent? Of course, this is not the lucky draw for anyone! Now Grigor Dimitrov will have to live with it and hope not to lose the fourth duel against the Spaniard with 0:2.
His performances in Shanghai so far have not been bad at all, but Alcaraz already has the feeling that he has everything under control and decides for himself when and how far he advances.
So, once again, I come to no other conclusion than that the youngster will be clearly ahead in the end and so I’m guessing:
Alcaraz beats Dimitrov again outright!
