Key Facts
- Wolfsburg (14th/19 points) is tied with HSV and Bremen in the relegation battle, while Dortmund (2nd/45) is chasing Bayern – six points behind, the pressure is mounting on both sides.
- The Wolves have been shaky lately: After an 8-1 win in Munich, they have had mixed results, most recently two defeats; in all five of their most recent games, they have conceded at least one goal.
- Without top striker Jonas Wind until the end of February, Wolfsburg are missing a focal point up front, and at the back, the absences of Maehle and Rogério, as well as new center backs, are making coordination difficult.
- Dortmund are finding ways to win despite some chaotic performances, most recently with Guirassy’s two goals against Heidenheim; Can’s problems, Mane’s absence and Sabitzer’s injury are thinning out the midfield.
- In a direct comparison, Dortmund have won three of the last five encounters, Wolfsburg none. First half; with odds of ~1.7 and 80% over 1.5 goals after the break, there is a lot to be said for BVB pressure late on.
- Both teams scoring remains plausible, as Wolfsburg has scored in 80% of its last five games and scored four times in a row at home, while Dortmund has conceded goals in 80% of its recent games.
Between relegation worries and title chase, two realities collide at the Volkswagen Arena. On Saturday, on matchday 21 of the Bundesliga, Daniel Bauer’s VfL Wolfsburg are under pressure in 14th place with 19 points, while Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund are second in the table with 45 points. The last league match in September 2025 was already close and tough, ending in a 1-0 win for Dortmund, and this time too, there is noticeable pressure on the game – only on both sides of the table. The focus is on a clear away win, Dortmund winning the second half, and both teams scoring, given Wolfsburg’s ongoing defensive restructuring and Dortmund’s own injury-related compromises. Kovac’s return to a former club adds an extra dimension to the game, even if it’s the points that count in the end.
- Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
- Date and time: February 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 21)
Dortmund is also the clear favorite in the odds, at around 1.7 for an away win – the logic lies in the gap between a team that is chasing Bayern and is six points ahead, and a Wolfsburg team that is stuck on 19 points, with Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen level on points to its left and right. Wolfsburg has conceded at least one goal in each of its last five games, while Dortmund rarely stays quiet for long, which keeps “both teams to score” in play. The focus in the second half will be on squad depth and pace: Kovac is open about the need for rotation, and Dortmund often comes out strong in the second half.
Wolfsburg form & record check
Wolfsburg’s last five league appearances underscore their instability. The alarming 8-1 defeat at Bayern was followed by a 2-1 home win against St. Pauli and a 1-1 draw against Heidenheim, but the momentum never lasted, as they first slipped to a 3-1 defeat in Mainz, then lost 1-0 in Cologne. The pattern is hard to miss: they always give their opponents something to defend. What makes Dortmund such an unpleasant opponent right now is, ironically, Wolfsburg’s combination of absences and adjustments: Wind is out until the end of February, meaning they have lost their most reliable point of reference up front, while Maehle and Rogério are still out in defense. Wolfsburg has reacted by signing Adjetey and adding Belocian on loan, but new center backs rarely look completely settled right away, especially against Dortmund’s pace and presence in the box.
Wolfsburg are likely to start in a 4-2-3-1 formation under Bauer, with Grabara behind Fischer, Vavro, Jenz, and Zehnter. Souza and Arnold will provide cover in front of the back four, giving Eriksen the space to dictate the tempo between the lines, flanked by Wimmer and Majer. Amoura looks the most likely option up front.
With Wind still out and Maehle and Rogério unavailable, the left side could be more solid than adventurous, with Zehnter expected to pick his moments. Seelt, Cleiton, and Dárdai are also missing, so there will be less rotation. Recent signings Adjetey and Belocian give Bauer alternatives in central defense if he wants more pace or a left-footed player. Lindstrøm is the obvious pace change from the bench.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Dortmund’s recent run across all competitions has been chaotic but ultimately refreshing. They beat St. Pauli 3-2, won 3-0 at Union Berlin, then lost 2-0 to Tottenham in Europe, followed by a 2-0 home win against Inter, before returning to league action with a 3-2 win over Heidenheim. Even if their performances don’t always look polished, they continue to find a way in the Bundesliga. Kovac’s immediate problem lies at the back: Can is struggling with adductor problems and Mane is out for several weeks, which limits the options and invites the odd goal or two. Nevertheless, the axis looks decent, Schlotterbeck and Anton are available, and Guirassy’s two goals against Heidenheim, one from the spot and one from open play, seemed like a fitting response to the talk of a personal slump. With Bayern looming, the focus must be sharp.
Kovac is likely to rely on a 3-4-2-1 formation again, with Kobel behind a back three of Süle, Anton, and Schlotterbeck. Couto and Svensson would probably provide width as wingbacks, while Özcan and Nmecha would form the double six. In the half-spaces, Brandt and Adeyemi are likely to set the pace behind Guirassy, who will serve as the target man. The big catch is availability, as Can and Mane are out and Sabitzer is still missing, leaving the midfield thinner than usual. This makes Özcan, who is set to be added to Dortmund’s Champions League squad, an obvious stabilizing force in midfield. If Kovac wants to play it safe, Ryerson or Bensebaini could be used in defense, with Beier or Silva options to tweak the front three.
Wolfsburg – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Dortmund has clearly had the upper hand in the last five encounters, with three wins, one draw, and one Wolfsburg victory. The most recent encounter was in September 2025, when Dortmund won 1-0, and in May 2025, when the result was a much clearer 4-0. Wolfsburg’s best memory of the recent past comes from 2024 in the DFB Cup, when they won 1-0 after extra time, and there was also a 1-1 draw in 2024. Another striking feature of this rivalry is the first half: Wolfsburg has not won a single first half in these five games, and the statistics suggest that Dortmund usually led at halftime, even if the margin remained small in the end. Interestingly, there were often few goals before the break, which makes the timing of a breakthrough all the more important. If Wolfsburg wants to get something out of the game, they will probably have to stay in it until the later stages.
