NBA Playoffs 2022 on Thursday, 04/28/2022
The Golden State Warriors were forced into a Game 5 by the Denver Nuggets after their success in front of their home crowd after all! Will the visitors from Colorado State perhaps make it even more exciting with another win?
It will definitely be close in my eyes as well, but I will focus my Warriors Nuggets prediction on a single player. Because just as all roads lead to Rome, every offensive attempt by the visitors currently leads through Nikola Jokic!
When a team is leading 3:0, it is usually the case that the trailing team mobilises all its strength once again in order to win at least once! This psychological “extra push” was clearly felt in Game 4 of this series.
The Nuggets started furiously in front of their home crowd and unleashed the one player the Warriors just can’t get under control in these first round games – The one and only: Nikola Jokic!
The Serbian started like fire and scored 18 of his team’s 26 points in the first twelve minutes of the game! This early lead was to prove invaluable at the end of the match
The Warriors caught up again later in the game and made up some ground with three-pointer king Stephen Curry! In the end, however, it remained a narrow 126:121 victory for the home side, who thus narrowly escaped the dreaded embarrassment.
Now the series moves back to California, where the Warriors are known to be strong. After all, the first two games against the Nuggets were won here with a difference of more than 15 points.
Golden State simply has the better team across the board – especially on the defensive end. At this point, it is imperative to mention Klay Thompson, whose effort seems to make the difference so far despite a long injury layoff.
The home side should basically close the deal – especially since Stephen Curry missed an unexpected number of points from the free throw line in the last game (4 missed attempts). Such a faux pas won’t happen a second time to the three-point king.
However, the Nuggets will give everything in this final game, so it will be a close game in any case. The focus of my Warriors Nuggets prediction, however, is not on the outcome of the game, but rather on a single player.
Denver seems to be using Nikola Jokic more and more. From game to game, the Serbian is getting more and more playing time and is getting better and better – his points from the first four games: 25, 26, 37, 37.
The Serb’s playing time has also been increased from 35 and 28 minutes in Game 1 and 2 to 37 in each of the last two home games! The simple logic behind this observation is that the longer the superstar is on the floor, the better his team performs.
Consequently, I strongly expect that in this all-or-nothing game, the visitors will simply play the ball to their one-man army over and over again in the hope that the centre will once again get to an early breach in the opposition’s defence.
The Warriors know what’s coming, but haven’t really managed to fight back so far – even if the Californians certainly benefit from the fact that they don’t have to fear any of his teammates much apart from Jokic.
Personally, I can sympathise with the role of the favourite, but I think the betting odds of around 1.25 are far too low. The Nuggets remain the underdog, but the 4.20 currently being traded does show some value-bet potential.
Conclusion: The Warrios are clearly the better team and remain my favourite to progress. However, the guests have tasted blood once again, which is why I expect another close affair.
But no matter how the game turns out in the end – Nikola Jokic will dress one of the main roles this time as well. Because the Serb has already scored 37 points in each of his last two games against the Californians!
The centre is also getting more and more playing time from his coach, which is why I see another strong player bet in a yield beyond the 30-point mark!
My Warriors Nuggets tip: Jokic with over 30.5 points!
