Basketball World Cup 2023, Semifinals on Friday, 08.09.2023
With an Interwetten betting bonus, I head to the “free throw line” of the online betting office to place my USA Germany tip, which will hopefully find its way into the basket.
This Friday, I’m expecting an epic semifinal between two teams that my main takeaway from the quarterfinals is that the North Americans kicked it up a notch just when the DBB boys were slacking off a bit.
When West Germany lost 1-0 to East Germany in the group stage of the 1974 World Cup thanks to a goal by Jürgen Sparwasser, legend has it that Franz Beckenbauer took the team out for a stag party to clear their heads.
As a result, Germany became world champions for the second time – and hopefully soon at the 2026 World Cup! Incidentally, something similar seems to have happened behind the scenes at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023.
As is well known, the USA lost the last group game against Lithuania with 100:104, which initially had a strong impact on the team around Head Coach Steve Kerr.
But how did the NBA pros pull themselves together after that! Possibly that one slip-up was just the hello-wake-up moment this squad needed on its way to gold.
The USA pulverized Italy, as I had correctly predicted. With 63:100 it was time for the “Azzurri” to say goodbye to this final round, where they reached the quarterfinals for the first time in 25 years.
It was impressive – and something every bettor should remember – that a knot actually seemed to have been untied within this talented U.S. team.
For Anthony Edwards scored only three points against the Italians, which in itself would have been an automatic defeat for many other nations with less depth….
But while the best offensive player of the USA had a bad day, his teammates stepped into the breach – for the first time at this World Cup, the NBA stars convinced as a collective.
My Germany Latvia tip also worked out, because I knew that the DBB boys would have considerable problems against this “no-name selection” of the Baltics, which was underestimated by the betting companies.
This is not least because Dennis Schröder does not have the consistency that is expected of him. It’s not for nothing that things aren’t going so well for the 29-year-old in the NBA either.
But against Latvia in particular, he showed himself to be extremely harmless. The key player responsible for setting up the game threw just 4 of 26 and was also a sore spot within his own defensive unit whenever the Latvians attacked through his position.
But against a team as strong defensively as the USA’s, the ball has to circulate really well – and here I see some problems coming for Germany.
The DBB selection came away with a scare in the quarterfinals without a starting five player – with the possible exception of Andreas Obst – being all that convincing.
The USA’s defense, on the other hand, was hardly recognizable against Italy – and that’s exactly the aspect on which my USA Germany tip is based.
The United States forced 19 turnovers against the Azzurri and converted them into 25 points. They also had a clear lead in fast-break points with 30:13.
In short: The performance of the US-Americans in the quarterfinals was much more convincing than that of the Germans against Latvia.
At the same time, I still have problems to consider the ratings of the betting companies as “fair”.
Scrolling through the individual sports betting apps, I am confronted with USA Germany odds that see the North Americans clearly ahead with values of about 1.15 – too “clear” for my taste!
The DBB selection will at least bravely counter, as incidentally already shortly before the start of the tournament, when they lost to the United States in a test match extremely narrowly with 91:99
Total: If the USA play like they did against Italy a few days ago, the Germans should be kept at bay with a difference of about 6 to 8 points.
Denis Schröder will have to run the ball much better again and also exude danger – after all, he didn’t hit a single one of his eight three-point attempts from beyond the arc against Latvia.
Nevertheless, I think that the NBA pros, who were briefly in a slump, have simply shifted up a gear at the right time and will head straight for the final.
But I still don’t believe in a dismantling of the DBB selection…
My USA Germany tip: GER wins with HC +14.5.
