BBL Play-offs 2023, Final, Game 3 on Wednesday, 14.06.2023
All of basketball Germany actually thought that it would go into this Game 3 of the BBL Finals with a 2:0 lead for TBB.
Although the “Spatzen” can be happy to have avoided a deficit before Wednesday’s home game, in the third meeting of this finals series I still expect another show of power from the Baskets in my Ulm Bonn tip.
In my Bonn Ulm tip for the opening match of this series, I dared to make a bold prediction from “Downtown”. Nobody but me expected the underdogs to win Game 1, least of all the sports betting companies!
They were offering odds of around 3.75 for the Baskets to lose for the third time this season. But the newly crowned Champions League winners did not let this affront go unpunished.
Because right away in the 2nd game, TBB showed why they have had one of the most dominant seasons in German basketball of all time, as they managed to equalise the series in an impressive 104:75 victory.
Crucial to the win in Game 2 was a strong performance from TJ Shorts, who put through those crucial balls with 19 points and 9 assists that really put the score up.
His teammate Finn Delany was the “Man of the Match” with 23 points and there was also enough support from the bench this time with Sebastian Herrera (17) and Deane Williams (13) to put the sparrows in their place.
In view of a 29-point difference, a class difference was recognisable – and not only on the scoreboard. For the Bonners were also clearly ahead in every relevant area of the game!
The Baskets collected significantly more rebounds (39:27), were much more active on defence with 13:3 steals and, in terms of ball handling, drew up the clearly better game structure with six fewer turnovers.
And the Ulm team? It wasn’t terrible what the Spatzen played together, but already in the first quarter the Bonners pulled away with 10 points and even extended this lead at the end of the second quarter (45:29).
The Ulm team also only won the first game because they defended their own basket excellently, but were still lucky that the Bonn team showed their worst shooting performance of the season.
In Game 1, the Baskets clearly dominated the rebounding duel with 47:36, but converted only 35.6 % of their throws from the field and just 24.3 % of their three-point attempts – 9 of 37.
In Game 2, on the other hand, these values again corresponded to what one had been used to from TBB for long stretches of the season – and which at the same time presented the Spatzen with insurmountable problems.
What I find outstanding about the current Ulm Bonn odds of the German betting providers is of course their relative balance.
Although the Bonn team is favoured with average odds of 1.70 – as it should be – not to the extent that I had expected in advance.
TBB has been so dominant so far that I would have considered even a much lower odds of 1.40 “fair” using the Bwin app.
A win for the home side, on the other hand, is associated on the markets with a win factor of around 2.10, which I consider too low to even consider an underdog bet here.
Conclusion: The matter is relatively simple: If the Ulm team can’t somehow magically make up for their size disadvantages on the board, it will be extremely difficult to win any more games in this final series.
As long as the Bonners don’t give them any gifts, TBB should also clearly dominate Game 3 with at least a 10-point lead.
Of course, the home advantage will play into Ulm’s hands on Wednesday, but I personally wouldn’t attach too much importance to this factor, as the Baskets are simply far too strong if they even reach their approximate normal form…
My Ulm Bonn tip: TBB wins Game 3.
