NBA Playoffs 2024/25, Round 2, Game 7, Sunday, 18.05.2025, 21:30
Even the final of the Rome Masters between Sinner and Alcaraz is not keeping betting providers with Apple Pay and PayPal as payment options as busy as Game 7 of the Conference Semifinals.
I was able to provide you with a successful Thunder Nuggets tip for Game 6. So I hope to start a little winning streak on Sunday with my next prediction.
The Western Conference Semifinals have delivered everything a basketball fan could want: drama, runs, lead changes – and now a decisive Game 7.
Right here, in this situation, no one should bet against the Nuggets.
Denver showed in Game 6 what it takes to have a championship mentality: unshakeable composure when the going gets tough and a wild card who steps up into god mode at just the right moment.
Nikola Jokić had 32 points by the middle of the third quarter, finishing with 38 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists. And you got the feeling he could shift into high gear if necessary.
This time, he got the relief he had been missing before. Jamal Murray fought his way through the game despite an infection, hit important step-backs, dished out seven pin-perfect assists and took the pressure off Jokić as soon as OKC doubled up.
That was the turning point, because the Thunder had no second player who could support Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on equal terms.
Jalen Williams was once again lackluster (3/16 FG), while Williams’ missed breakaway layup was symbolic. OKC suddenly looked nervous, while Denver looked composed.
The Nuggets had been struggling with a lack of production off the bench. But that could have changed for good, starting with Game 6.
Julian Strawther is the best example of a bench player whose performance helped Denver tie the series. Out of nowhere, the sophomore delivered 15 points, including three ice-cold three-pointers. That’s exactly the kind of “bonus buckets” Denver needs when Gordon isn’t quite fit.
Speaking of Gordon, his injury looked bad at first, but thanks to the two days off, he can at least give 20 solid minutes. That’s all it takes when Strawther or Christian Braun score in double digits again.
We also shouldn’t underestimate what two full days of recovery mean for Denver between Game 6 and 7.
For almost three weeks, there have been no more than one-day breaks; now Murray can recover from his injury, Jokić can loosen up his back, and Gordon can get treatment for his thigh.
Experience has shown that Coach Adelman uses these mini-breaks to incorporate sets that work specifically against OKC’s switch-everything approach: more Spain pick-and-rolls with Strawther as the back screener, more duck-ins for Jokić against smaller defenders, but above all more varied off-ball cuts from KCP when Murray is double-teamed.
We’ve already seen glimpses of all this, but with an extra day, the plays will become even smoother. On the OKC side, however, the question remains: Where are the consistent three-pointers going to come from?
In the last two games, the team shot under 33 percent from outside, while Denver hit 39 percent.
If Dort and Wallace miss open shots again, Denver will close down the zone and Shai will have to prevail in one-on-two situations again. That won’t work four times in a row.
My betting recommendation for this do-or-die game is clear: Denver to win, combined with Jokić scoring over 30.5 points. A simple bet on DEN to win offers odds of around 3.70.
If you choose the combination bet instead, you’ll quickly reach odds of 5.50, quintupling your stake!
Those of you who are looking for a little more security can instead speculate on a DEN win with a +5.5 handicap. That covers 110:115 or 112:127, which are results that Denver could lose by in a realistic worst-case scenario.
The bottom line, however, is that the overall package favors the visitors – experience, home advantage, a superstar in top form, and newly discovered bench depth.
In my opinion, Denver will seal the deal on Sunday and we’ll get the final we’ve been expecting from the start.
Conclusion: In a decisive Game 7, it’s usually the biggest stars who make the difference, and here the difference is clear. Nikola Jokić has already won several games in which his team would have been eliminated if they had lost, scoring over 40 points in the process.
His teammate Jamal Murray can turn the tide of an entire series with his infamous “heat check” phases, in which he makes almost every shot.
On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still in his first real playoff run, while Jalen Williams has seen a significant drop in form recently.
Given these circumstances, there is a lot to be said for the Nuggets’ star duo going into Game 7. Add to that the better rebounding record and the fresh bench option in Strawther, and there is even more to be said for Denver.
My Thunder Nuggets prediction: Jokic with a triple-double!
