NBA 2022/23, on Wednesday, 12/21/2022
I’m happy to press the “value bet buzzer” with both hands. Because among our NBA tips, the game between the Phoenix Suns and the Washington Wizards simply couldn’t be missing. In fact, I smell a little surprise here.
At some point, the Capital Bullets’ losing streak will come to an end. While the Capitals could come up empty tonight as well, equipped with enough of a “handicap advantage”, my Suns Wizards tip should at least be enough for a weather win.
The Suns are currently struggling with some delicate blowouts that have resulted in losing five games in a row in between. An unusually poor outing for the usually strong Arizonans.
This made it necessary for players to take on the responsibility from then on, who otherwise rarely got a chance to play, one of them, Josh Okogie, was game decisive in the important victories over the Clippers (111:95) and Pelicans (118:114).
Okogie is a reserve who has rarely been used but contributed a valuable 18 points and 16 rebounds in those two games that ended up being the difference. Phoenix, however, remains sub-optimal in terms of personnel tonight.
I’m trying to capitalise on the bookies’ perceived miscalculation of favouring the Suns too heavily in a similar way to last weekend, when I correctly predicted the Magic’s win over the Celtics.
The upcoming game could take a similarly surprising course. That’s because the Suns Wizards odds from the best sportsbooks are quite lush as far as an away win bet is concerned, and Washington is by no means without a chance.
Of course, the Capital Bullets’ record is dismal, with just one win from their last 14 NBA games. Magic, on the other hand, entered the matchup against the Celtics with five straight wins – and still, the Wizards shouldn’t be written off right away.
Just three weeks ago, the Capital Bullets had a record of 11-10. Their current 10-game losing streak is only their second double-digit losing streak of the season.
And yet, the Capital’s defence is anything but disastrous. In 7 of the last 10 defeats, the point difference to the opponent within the last five minutes of the game was just five points.
In fact, on this basis alone, Washington could have won a few more games with a bit of luck. The trend thus clearly indicates that things are slowly but steadily looking up.
This upward trend in terms of their own defensive behaviour also has to do with the successful experiment of having Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford play together.
The Wizards have now taken 42 points away from their opponents in the 49 minutes of the game in which these two giants have been on the floor together – a remarkable achievement for such a franchise.
In addition, the recently recovered Bradley Beal almost made the difference in yesterday’s loss to the Lakers. The Capital Bullets’ superstar made his comeback and scored 29 points, which would have been enough to win the game by a hair’s breadth (117:119).
The Wizards were only one three-pointer away from defeating the Lakers. Had they actually managed to win, the bookies would have been loosening win odds of 2.20.
In my opinion, this shows how much the Wizards are underestimated on the markets at the moment and that the bookies could experience their black miracle tonight. Especially since they are favouring the Suns even more than the Californians the night before with win odds of 1.28.
Of course, Phoenix is also stronger than Los Angeles – but I’m sticking to my guns: without Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton in the starting five, this will be anything but a walk in the park.
This is the first time both franchises have met this season, but the Suns have won each of the last three NBA meetings by at least 15 points.
However, they’ve usually done so with their best lineup, but tonight’s matchup is far trickier from the Arizona perspective.
Conclusion: Maybe the Capital Bullets won’t win again, but I think another defeat by 15 or even 20 points is much less likely.
Because Washington’s defence is nowhere near as bad as the Hornets’. In addition, the combined efforts of Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford seem to be paying off more and more – at least the ones delivered in this regard should encourage the visitors.
In addition, of course, there is a Bradley Beal, who has been missing since early December and in his first outing against the Lakers would have led his battered team to victory by a hair’s breadth.
My Suns Wizards tip strongly suggests that a HC win bet of +10.5 on the Capital Bullets should be crowned with success.
