NBA Regular Season 2023/24, Thursday, 07.12.2023
On Thursday night, two teams with mirror images of each other will meet in Toronto. Raptors point guard Dennis Schröder will also be in the spotlight.
My Raptors Heat prediction explains why I expect Toronto’s OG Anunoby to put a defensive leash on Heat star Jimmy Butler
The Raptors are currently where no franchise in the NBA really wants to be: In no-man’s land in the standings.
Too good for the lottery and the associated high draft picks, too bad to make a respectable playoff run. But with a record of 9:11, nothing is lost.
With 111.2 points per game, the Canadians have the eighth-worst offense in the league, while their three-point shooting percentage is one of the four lowest in the league at just 33.7%.
After all, only three teams manage more direct baskets (28.1).
The Dinos’ defense is still slightly above average with 112.5 points allowed per game. Only four teams allow fewer free throws than the Raptors.
The team’s basic problem under the aegis of newly appointed Serbian head coach Darko Rajaković is that the designated stars Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby are far too similar in terms of their player profiles.
In particular, the two-time All-NBA player Siakam and top talent Barnes get in each other’s way too often in terms of driving lanes, ball presentations and offensive responsibility.
The fact that Siakam is only hitting 19.8% of his shots from behind the three-point line this season only accentuates this problem.
German world champion Dennis Schröder, meanwhile, has acclimatized well to the north of the NBA and presents himself as a reliable scoring option, hitting a decent 35.3% from downtown and coming up with a strong 7.0 assists per night (career best).
The Miami Heat, last year’s finalists after all, are not necessarily surprisingly one of the most inconsistent teams in the league with a record of 11:9.
After losing four of their first five games of the season, they went on to win nine of their next ten games, only to win just one of their last four.
The only real statement wins so far have come against the Lakers and Pacers, while defeats have come against Boston, Minnesota, New York and Milwaukee (twice).
While the Heat only have the seventeenth-best offense (113.1 points), their defense ranks 12th with 112.0 points allowed.
In contrast to the Raptors, the Heat are one of the most accurate teams from downtown (3rd), having converted 38.6% of their threes so far. Conversely, only four teams allow a higher opponent shooting percentage from beyond 7.24m (37.8%).
The Heat’s inconsistency is symbolized not least by superstar Jimmy Butler, who is equally good for scoring outbursts and ice-cold shooting performances.
The 34-year-old followed up two weak performances against Chicago (4-11 throws) and Cleveland (3-12 throws) at the end of November with three strong offensive performances (7-14, 9-19, 12-23 throws).
Heat fans are also encouraged by the fact that Miami has won 59 of the previous 100 duels with the Raptors. However, the last three direct duels went to the Raptors.
Since I think the classic two-way bets for the game are too unpredictable, my Raptors Heat betting tip relies entirely on a player bet.
Since the Raptors have one of the best wing defenders in the league in OG Anunoby, I don’t exactly expect a gala performance from Heat star Jimmy Butler.
In 15 games between Anunoby and Butler so far, the latter is averaging 21.6 points on 47% shooting.
In his last three games in Toronto, however, Butler is averaging just 41.2% shooting and 17 points.
Since the Raptors have allowed very few free throws this season, I think it will be very difficult for “Jimmy Buckets” to score more than 26 points.
I therefore recommend a player bet that Butler will score fewer than 25.5 points. At Bwin, this event is traded at lucrative odds of 1.85.
So here is a chance to take a real stab at the top sports betting providers.
My Raptors Heat tip: Butler will score a maximum of 25 points!
