NBA Playoffs 2024/25, NBA Finals, Game 4, Saturday, June 14, 2025, 2:30 a.m.
How about kicking off an excellent sports betting bonus with my NBA Finals prediction? After all, this could be your penultimate opportunity to do so. The Pacers are currently in the lead and could set themselves up for match point with another win.
It will be another close contest, there’s no doubt about that. But if I had to commit to a Pacers Thunder tip, it would definitely be based on the number of baskets scored.
Given the strong defense on both sides, this should remain manageable.
My NBA Finals prediction before Game 4 has shifted noticeably after the Pacers’ performance in Game 3. Indiana no longer looked like the team that had been trailing for most of the previous game.
Instead, we saw a team with heart, depth, and a clear plan against the MVP. The Thunder had their moments, especially at the end of the third quarter, but the final quarter belonged to Indiana – and how.
Haliburton played with pace from the start, Mathurin came off the bench with a spark that ignited the team, and defensively, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was kept in check for the first time.
All of this makes it clear: this game was a sign of things to come. But how much of it can be carried over to Game 4?
In terms of predictions, you are now facing an exciting situation. On the one hand, the Thunder have the talent to fight back – they have proven that several times in the playoffs, most recently against the Nuggets after trailing 1-2.
On the other hand, the Pacers have developed a home strength that thrives on emotion, depth, and game intelligence.
Above all, players like McConnell and Mathurin bring unpredictable momentum to the game that opponents find difficult to adjust to. For those looking for value, there is multiple potential here.
The first obvious NBA Finals tip is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score over 33.5 points at odds of 1.90 on the Bet365 app. After a disappointing performance by his standards with 24 points and 6 turnovers, a reaction is almost certain.
Shai has shown several times in these playoffs that he strikes back immediately after weaker games. He will play more aggressively, take charge earlier, and go into the game with clearer reads.
The Pacers have a few good defenders, but Shai will find his solutions. This bet is particularly interesting if you also expect a Thunder win.
Related: Thunder win (moneyline). OKC has its back against the wall, and it’s been there before. The response in the Nuggets series was a statement.
The team is too well coached, too deep, and too experienced in dealing with setbacks to panic now. Holmgren will have to contribute more offensively, and Jalen Williams will also need to step up.
Sure, Indiana has the momentum – but that could fade into the background if Oklahoma finds its game again. For anyone who believes in OKC, this is a valuable pick.
Of course, you can also bet on the Pacers. The player bet on Bennedict Mathurin to score over 10.5 points at around 1.90 is appealing – especially if coach Carlisle puts his trust in him early on again.
His confidence is sky-high after his 27-point outburst, and his explosive style of play makes him almost unstoppable anyway.
Alternatively, you could go for a creative combination bet such as Haliburton double-double + Pacers win if you think the hosts can successfully set up their game again.
On the other hand, if you like to bet on individual periods of the game, the quarter bets offer some good options. Indiana likes to start strong, especially at home.
A bet on the Pacers to win the first quarter could pay off again, especially if Haliburton attacks early and McConnell causes turnovers again.
OKC, on the other hand, could respond more strongly in the second half – a classic scenario for a comeback.
An over/under bet is also possible, but should be treated with caution. Both teams can play tough defense, but if the three-pointers fall – for example, from Haliburton or Dort – a high-scoring game is also conceivable.
The over/under line is around 225.5 points. If you believe in an offensive fireworks display, go for the over; if, like me, you expect a physical battle, go for the under.
The bottom line is that my NBA Finals prediction for Game 4 is an invitation to be creative. Anything seems possible. The Pacers look mature, determined and have dug their heels into the series – but OKC will not go down without a fight.
Ultimately, in a duel characterized by intense defensive work, I’m leaning towards a win for the visitors – because OKC is known for fighting back even harder after setbacks.
However, my Pacers Thunder tip remains primarily: Under 222.5 points.
