NBA 2022/23, on Wednesday, 18.01.2023
The Denver Nuggets get their next chance against the Portland Trail Blazers to extend their lead at the top of the Western Conference.
The home side are somewhat shorthanded and will come up against a team that can also be very dangerous, at least on the road. This is exactly what my present Nuggets Trail Blazers tip is based on.
The Nuggets just won their sixth straight game and have prevailed in 16 of them over the last 19-game span. As I’ve said many times before: It may actually end up being 1 for the Nuggets in this weaker Conference!
What sets Denver apart right now is that they have a proven record of being the most prolific offense in the entire NBA – and that’s exactly why I see a veritable scoring thunderstorm looming over Ball Arena in the upcoming duel against Portland.
Because even though Portland has a shoddy defense that practically dooms them to sniffing playoff air via the qualifier at best, their own offense ranks 8th league-wide with an OffRtg of 114.5.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, are extremely productive and have six players averaging double-digit points per game – and meanwhile, they can hold the upper hand without Nikola Jokic.
Last Friday, for example, they were able to defeat the Clippers entirely without their Serbian MVP, limiting them to just 45 points per 48 possessions in the second half. Thus, as the game goes on, Denver usually gets better and better.
Just the opposite seems to be the case with the upcoming opponent. Due to various factors, the Trail Blazers are developing from one of the teams with the strongest nerves to one that simply loses the thread in the so-called “crunch time”.
At one point in the season, Rip City had a record of five wins to one loss in close games – in four of those five victories, the decisive basket was even sunk within the last ten seconds.
This is exactly what characterises the big teams that will eventually be in the playoffs. But the visitors don’t seem to be one of them anymore, which is why I see the Nuggets pulling away in the final phase at the latest.
After all, Portland now only has a 9-14 record in games where both teams are separated by a maximum of five points with five minutes to go. In that aspect, the Trail Blazers have taken a massive step down.
Meanwhile, for my Nuggets Trail Blazers tip, the performance of the visitors over the weekend has been crucial. For as much as they disappointed in certain aspects, the offense delivered.
Portland put on two of their most offensively efficient games of the season between Friday and Sunday and actually “performed magic”.
After all, 141 points per 100 possessions was too much even for a top team like Dallas. In the end, the Mavs were overrun twice by the Trail Blazers in the doubleheader with 136:119 and 140:123.
I’m speculating on just such a high final score in tonight’s game against the Nuggets.
As far as Nuggets Trail Blazers odds go, sportsbooks have determined that the home side appears to be closer to victory – and who could blame them for that assessment.
After all, Denver has won each of its last 13 NBA home games at home. Still, the win odds of just 1.32 are too low for me to consider a home win bet.
Because the opponent has an offense that ran hot over the weekend. Furthermore, if the Nuggets are without Jokic and lack focus, they could get blindsided by Rip City very quickly.
The odds of around 3.10 for a win by the visitors from Portland are also interesting because the home side will continue to be without various players such as Gillespie, Green and Hyland due to injury …
Total: The Bwin app allows me to quickly get into the action, especially during dynamic NBA games, and to place live bets even while the game is already in progress.
In this match between the Nuggets and the Trail Blazers, however, this will not be necessary, because I am already relatively sure in advance that the spectators in the Ball Arena will see at least 228 points.
Because two of the best offenses in the entire league will meet, and last weekend the guest from Portland was able to impress the Dallas Mavericks, who were by no means weak, with their offensive play alone …
My Nuggets Trail Blazers tip: Over 227.5 points.
