NBA Playoffs 2024/25, Round 2, Game 6, Friday, 16.05.2025, 02:30
With one eye, I’m keeping an eye on the ESC winner odds, but with the other, I’m also watching the NBA Finals and especially this matchup, which I believe will produce the overall winner.
I’ve put together a Nuggets Thunder tip for you that’s prepared for all eventualities. I could still be successful even if Denver were to come up just short again.
The Thunder have grabbed match point – but the evening in OKC was anything but a total disaster for Denver.
On the contrary, Game 5 saw a Nuggets team that was the better side for long stretches, with Nikola Jokić in particular looking like the three-time MVP he is.
With 44 points, 15 rebounds, 17 of 25 from the field, and 5 of 7 from the three-point line, Jokić was a force of nature. And the fact that he still came away empty-handed in the end was less due to his performance than to the collective offensive collapse of his teammates.
In crunch time, he was left completely alone. Over seven minutes in the final quarter without a field goal – that breaks your neck in any game.
But Game 5 also showed that when Jokić delivers, the Nuggets have the foundation for a win.
The Thunder had to pull out all the stops to get through the evening – Shai worked his magic again, Dort suddenly found his range, Jalen Williams sank the decisive three-pointer – and yet it was still a nail-biter until 90 seconds before the end.
And that despite Denver looking paralyzed on offense in the fourth quarter.
Things will be very different for Denver in Game 6 at home. First, because so-called role players like Porter Jr., Gordon and KCP have more reliable shooting percentages there. Second, because experience shows that Murray usually brings his best game to the Ball Arena.
And thirdly, because the Thunder can’t walk this fine line of efficiency forever. What they showed in Game 5 in terms of toughness and discipline was impressive – but at some point it’s going to get tight when you always have to rise above yourself to win by a narrow margin.
What’s more, we mustn’t forget that the Nuggets have recovered after a tough start to the season and some defensive problems. The game plan was actually good – they had an eight-point lead in the middle of the fourth quarter.
The fact that they then gave the game away is annoying, but not a sign of structural failure. Rather, it was a mixture of fatigue, too little rhythm among the shooters, and a few clever plays by the Thunder.
But hey, that’s playoff basketball. Denver has now seen what doesn’t work – and will make the necessary adjustments in the home game.
More movement off the ball, better screens, clear rotations. Malone knows he has to deliver now, and this team has done that consistently in the past when it mattered.
Possible player bets: Jokić will deliver again, you can be sure of that. In a game like this with his back against the wall? The man loves this stage.
So expect 30+ points, double-digit rebounds and, this time, more than five assists from the Serbian.
Murray will also step up because Dort can’t play every game like a terrier on defense and Klay Thompson on offense.
And even if Porter Jr. doesn’t look like a reliable scorer right now, he’ll break out at some point. Maybe two or three three-pointers will be enough – that’s all it takes when Jokić is playing so dominantly.
That’s why my Nuggets Thunder tip without any further precautions is: Denver to win, classic, odds around 2.65 to 2.70 – which is almost a gift for a home game of the 2022/2023 champions with such a dominant Jokić.
If you’re feeling brave, you can combine that with a Jokić over 30.5 points, which will give you Nuggets Thunder odds in the range of 4.20 to 4.40, depending on the bookmaker.
The Nuggets have the best player in the series, the better depth – and they know how to deliver in must-win games.
One thing is clear: the Nuggets know what’s at stake. If they lose this one, their title dreams are over. But that’s exactly what this team is made of.
Home court, a loud arena, a focused Jokić in MVP form, and a coaching staff that knows how to respond to defeat – that’s the setup in which Denver traditionally delivers.
The Thunder have now won twice at home – but there’s a different wind blowing in Ball Arena. That’s where we’ll see if they’re really ready to knock the kings of the West off their throne.
I believe: Not yet. Denver isn’t done yet.
