NBA 2021/22 on Sunday, 16.01.2022
Tonight’s game between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers will show us why basketball is first and foremost a team sport. And the home side can only benefit from this insight!
Because in my Nuggets Lakers tip I will go into why a compact team performance will help Denver to victory in the end. Because even if LeBron James plays outstandingly on the other side, his defence simply allows too much!
The Nuggets are not one of the very best teams in the NBA, but in my eyes they are better than the Lakers can be right now with their lapses and defensive problems – and they will show the proof tonight.
After all, Denver won six of its last nine games and only had to succumb to strong teams like the Jazz (109:115) and the Clippers (85:87). But even the upcoming opponent would probably be a bit overmatched against these two teams at the moment.
In addition, the Nuggets literally pulverised the Trail Blazers on Friday. In a 140-108 win, the home side, led by Nikola Jokic, put in an outstanding team performance to put Portland out of business.
It’s been less than two years since the Lakers won the NBA Finals. But a lot has changed since then. Dennis Schröder, for example, fumbled in the contract poker, while Anthony Davis has now been out for weeks due to injury.
As a result, the Californian defence is not watertight and has taken a beating, especially in the last week. The 119-127 loss to the Grizzlies was followed by another 116-125 defeat – this time against the Kings.
Too many points against teams that they should actually dominate if Los Angeles really wants to play for the title again. Therefore, the purple yellows can’t complain at all about the balanced record of (21-21) – the only bright spot: LeBron James.
Even though he is not the youngest anymore, LeBron delivers – there is no doubt about it! With an average of 29.1 points, he is the second best scorer in the NBA. In yesterday’s defeat against the Kings, the centre did everything he could with 34 points to lead his team to victory – in vain.
In all likelihood, The King will even scratch the 30-point mark against the Nuggets. Because as long as the Lakers’ number six stays healthy and performs in the current condition, he simply cannot be stopped – not even by Nikola Jokic.
However, there are good reasons why I trust the home side’s cohesive team performance in my Nuggets Lakers tip. Because an in-depth analysis suggests that Denver will simply allow less and dish out more.
The Lakers’ defence has definitely allowed too much in the last ten games, averaging 118 points per game – almost 15 points more than the Nuggets, who have allowed just 103.1 points to opponents over the same period.
Moreover, according to the official NBA statistics, no team punishes defensive mistakes more than the Nuggets.
During the last seven NBA games, no other team has been able to achieve a higher FG success rate (49.7%) than the team from Denver. On top of that, the absence of the long-term injured Anthony Davis will weaken the Californians’ defence enormously.
American and German bookmakers have a clear idea of who will leave the field as the winner in the end. According to the odds, it should be the Nuggets in the end.
A win for the home side is offered on the betting markets at an average of 1.60 – even if this value is not set in stone at various bookmakers, but is subject to slight changes.
Conclusion: The Nuggets don’t necessarily belong to the crème de la crème of the NBA, but in my opinion they have now outdistanced the Lakers – at least they are in better shape tonight!
For the Californians, Anthony Davis is still out, while the defence just seems to be far too spotty. Over the period of the last ten games, they have conceded an average of 15 points more than the home side.
Denver, for its part, has the highest FG% rate of any NBA team over the last seven games at 49.7%. Although Lakers centre LeBron James will make a noise again, there is not enough for an away win in the visit to Ball Arena at the moment.
My Nuggets Lakers tip: Win by the hosts!
