NBA 2022/23, on Thursday, 22/12/2022
Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors is certainly among this week’s NBA picks with the most playoff character. At the very least, this game would be a real cracker if the defending champions were in full possession.
However, as my Nets Warriors tip makes clear, the visitors from California are currently acutely shorthanded – and have been for some time. Still, I certainly don’t expect the Dubs to embarrass themselves to the bone tonight…
I recently read an interesting article about the current state of the Warriors, and what their goal should be for the coming weeks without Stephen Curry. The result in one word: survive!
In fact, I couldn’t have described the current situation more aptly. For the reigning defending champions have been hit by such bad luck with injuries that they now have to avoid losing too many games at all costs.
The Californians’ injury absences are by no means limited to Stephen Curry – even if he is by far their most important man. DiVincenzo, Green, Iguodala, Wiggins, Kuminga and Thompson are also missing.
All these absences have made what many consider the best team in the NBA almost unrecognisable. The bottom line is that they have only won two of their last seven games this season.
The upcoming opponents, however, are in better shape than they have been for a long time. Free of injuries and with a Kyrie Irving who always makes more positive headlines on the court than negative ones off it, the Nets are clearly on the upswing.
Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 11 NBA games, losing only to the Boston Celtics. This team knows how to win a game, but that’s about it!
With this, I would like to warn all bettors who are going into this game with too high expectations. After all, the home side are strong as a rock, while the Californians are currently going through probably the hardest time of the past three seasons.
Nevertheless, the Nets are not a team that systematically plays its opponents into the ground. Rather, the New Yorkers know how to outrun their opponents by cleverly increasing the tempo in the decisive phases of the game – usually in the 3rd quarter.
Brooklyn has won each of its last six NBA games, but only one of them was by more than six points – even against the Pistons yesterday it was a nail-biter until the end (124:121).
Here’s some more data that can make it clear why I wouldn’t expect too much from the Nets tonight.
Because yes, they have actually won 10 of their last 11 NBA games, but nine of those wins have come against teams that don’t have a positive record.
They also trailed by 18 and 19 points at times during their last two games against the low-scoring Raptors on Friday and Pistons on Sunday, respectively, before they were able to turbo-charge in the 3rd quarter.
The Warriors should also not be without a chance, as even with their current line-up they can still give the New Yorkers something to play against.
The Warrios may have won the last two head-to-head duels, but that should not be an argument for a strong showing.
For the New Yorkers will be as well-staffed as they have ever been tonight, while on the other side Stephen Curry’s absence poses a real problem for the Californians…
Sports bettors seem to have realised this as well, expecting a true “basketball massacre” tonight.
After all, the New Yorkers are associated with outrageously low win odds of around 1.15, while a victory for the spares-weakened Warriors is rewarded with a 6-fold increase in the stake at bookies such as betting provider Bet365.
Conclusion: If the Warriors were facing the Grizzlies tonight, I would consider a bigger handicap bet on Memphis without hesitation.
Because in their “youthful zeal”, The Grizz tend to run up the score whenever they sense a weakness in their opponent. The Nets, however, are not a team that consistently dominates games, but rather simply wants to win.
I expect a confident performance from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who can step it up in the third and fourth quarters if necessary, but without outclassing the opponent.
My Nets Warriors tip: The Dubs win with a handicap of +15.5.
