NBA Playoffs 2022 on Friday, 20.05.2022
The Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics remain a very close affair, even though the Floridians managed to take the lead yesterday with a win in the series opener!
Whether the home side builds on yesterday’s performance is irrelevant in my Heat Celtics Game 2 tip, as I’m only looking forward to Jimmy Butler’s performance as part of my player betting!
It was clear that the losses on the Celtics’ side would cost them dearly in such a close duel. Nevertheless, Boston even led at halftime before Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo came on strong on the other end.
Butler is the unsung hero of these playoffs. Not that his performances aren’t appreciated, but everyone is talking about Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chris Paul or Luka Doncic, even though the Heat’s superstar is also putting in impressive performances.
That’s why I’ll have him at the top of my list of possible player bets for tonight. After all, Butler has cracked the 33-point mark in four of his last five NBA games and is currently presenting fans with some captivating form.
The Celtics, meanwhile, have the problem mentioned in the last section of having to cope without two important defensive specialists. Yet the Greens got this far in the first place because they have a perfectly matched defence.
Al Horford, the first of the two defensive artists, still has to take a break due to a Covid illness and will therefore also miss Game 2. Marcus Smart, on the other hand, has a slightly better chance of making a comeback.
However, I doubt that Smart – even if he overcomes his foot injury – will be able to give 100% right away. This gives the Heat a slight playing advantage, but I still wouldn’t favour them!
The Celtics dismantled the Heat in the first half. The C’s converted 42 of their 62 points inside the zone, missing the visitors’ playoff record (since 1997/98) by just two points.
It was only later, when the Heat turned it up in the 3rd quarter and the visitors needed the physicality of a Marcus Smart on defence, that the Floridians regained the upper hand. Battle luck seems to change sides frequently in this series.
However, a win bet on the home side is still not an option for me. As has been the case throughout the playoffs, the Heat have simply missed their target far too often from distance, with only 33% (10/30) going in at the end!
In my Heat Celtics tip, I’m going to go with a player bet again, especially since I think players like Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum will once again be the mainstays of their respective teams’ offensive game on the other side.
Butler scored 41 points yesterday, more than he has ever scored during this postseason. Given that strong performance and the home court advantage, I’m sticking with the forward delivering again.
As for the Heat Celtics odds, the home side are considered the relative clear favourite to win with an average of 1.50. On the other hand, the average odds for the other way around are 2.50.
However, as this is still a 50-50 proposition for me, despite the C’s failures, I would give a Heat Celtics tip on a strictly game theory view, which is more likely to see an away win.
Conclusion: The first game was extremely exciting and the C’s seemed to have all but forgotten about the absences of Marucs Smart and Al Horford in the first period.
The guests dominated the zone and only had to back down more and more from the 3rd quarter on. In the end, the Heat could win, but given the low odds, a win bet on another victory of the red and white would be too tricky for me!
I’d rather focus on the output of Jimmy Butler, who already put up 41 points yesterday, his best playoff performance so far this year!
So my Heat Celtics tip is: Butler scores over 26.5 points!
