NBA 2022/23, on Thursday, 05.04.2023
In these final days of the Regular Season, it’s not often that sportsbooks give a team with no playoff prospects just a “slight underdog” in a game against a title challenger.
In my Magic Cavaliers tip, however, that seems to be exactly the case – and rightly so! Because the boys from Florida, who in my eyes own the future, don’t identify in the slightest with their supposed victim role as twelfth in the Eastern Conference.
These guys just have fun playing basketball, you have to hand it to the Magic! Because no other franchise that no longer has a chance at the play-offs has the ball rolling like the Floridians at the moment: 5 wins out of the last 6 NBA games.
During this period, they were able to defeat much stronger teams at the Amway Center, which NBA fans will also get to see in the postseason, such as the Knicks (111:106) or the Nets (119:106).
The fact that tonight’s game will be played in sunny Orlando again must be credited to the young guns as a significant advantage. They have won each of their last five appearances here, including last night’s 129-102 win over the Pistons.
Granted, the Pistons are on the level of an NCAA team this season. But that shouldn’t obscure the strong performance of the Magic, who have already identified their two franchise superstars for the future: Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
Banchero is even likely to win the Rookie of the Year Award, which is why it might be worth it for him to put in another great performance tonight in the duel against the Cavs.
Wendell Carter, meanwhile, is an important defensive player who is essential for defending their own half-court. While the young superstar has been missing several times this season due to injury, he should be able to start tonight.
Another player responsible for the Magic’s current performance high is undoubtedly Franz Wagner and he hails from Berlin.
The German’s performances are usually overshadowed by Banchero’s, but his rebounding prowess could also trouble the Cavs’ guards on the boards tonight.
In fact, I’d go so far as to call Wagner the best NBA player of the season in only his second year – though he certainly has tough competition in that category with Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Josh Giddey.
The Magic should give the Cavaliers a run for their money thanks to their three young superstars, which I’m confident they can win. Cleveland, after all, already seems somewhat resigned to 4th place in the Eastern Conference.
The Cavs’ defensive work record has left something to be desired in recent days in games against the Hawks (118-120) and Knicks (116-130).
Although they followed it up with a win last night against the Pacers in front of their home crowd (115-105), Indiana currently poses far less of a challenge than the Floridians!
In addition, the Cavs have to play away from home, which usually doesn’t suit them. After all, they have a negative away record of 18 wins to 21 losses this season.
And it’s in this context that I’ll follow up with my statistical killer argument for a Magic Cavaliers bet: Orlando has last beaten Cleveland at home 8 times in a row!
Consequently, I’m having a bit of trouble unapologetically accepting the Cavs’ favouritism on the betting markets at odds of currently 1.45.
The Floridians are just playing really well at the moment, which is why I would book the underdog odds of 2.70 as a so-called value bet.
Summary: The home side is playing without any pressure at the moment, which seems to inspire their performance.
In addition, all key players are healthy and in good enough shape to also give the Cavaliers a tough fight, which the bookmakers are not quite convinced they can win.
However, Cleveland has already lost 8 times in a row when visiting the Floridians and the Cavs’ performances over the course of the past week haven’t excited me too much either.
My Magic Cavaliers tip is therefore: Orlando wins.
