NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 2nd Round, Game 1, Tuesday, May 07, 2024
The first round series of the NBA Playoffs between the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers was thrilling. The point differential over the entire series was just one point and yet the Knicks won in six.
Tom Thibodeau had his trusted scorer, Jalen Brunson, to thank. The guard scored more than any other player in the NBA in the first round (35.5 points per game) and is also the focus of my Knicks Pacers tip. I’m playing it at Bwin with odds of 1.87 on “Jalen Brunson Over 34.5 points.”
The Knicks’ rotation has shrunk to seven players following Bojan Bogdanovic’s injury. Tom Thibodeau expects his team to make a big effort, which could become an issue as the series progresses.
Especially at the start of the conference semi-finals, I attribute even less importance to this factor. The sports betting providers handle it similarly, otherwise the Knicks’ clear role as favorites with odds of up to 1.45 in the first comparison would not be justifiable.
The different styles of play of the two teams make this clash partly a duel of opposites. During the regular season, the Knicks played the lowest pace in the NBA (95.96) – the Pacers lived up to their name with a pace of 102.16 (2nd).
However, in my Knicks Pacers tip, I’m not going to go into the overall result, but rather explore the possibilities for another night of Brunson magic.
According to my analysis, the odds are pretty good. After a tough start in the series against the 76ers (Game 1 + Game 2 averaged 23.0 points), Brunson exploded in the four games that followed, averaging 41.8 points on a 59.2 percent true shooting percentage.
The Knicks’ number eleven kept the focus throughout the series, although in the first playoff round only Maxey and teammate Josh Hart saw more minutes on average than Brunson (43.8 minutes per game).
At the same time, Jalen Brunson (35.6 percent) had the second-highest usage rate of the first round after Embiid and had to deliver virtually all the time.
The hosts’ star player meets his old coach in Rick Carlisle, to whom he is only too keen to prove his new class
It’s quite possible that the Pacers won’t be able to defend the home side’s hero. In the regular season, the Pacers’ defensive rating (117.6) was one of the weakest in the NBA (24th).
Rebounding is a major problem for Rick Carlisle’s team. With 41.5 rebounds per night, the visitors were the second-weakest regular-season team on the board.
The Knicks will attack this weakness. New York collected the most offensive rebounds in the NBA in the regular season (12.7 per game) and even went one better in the series against the 76ers (14.5 per game).
This gives the Knickerbockers some second chances on offense and will give Jalen Brunson’s scoring a boost.
Additionally, the Pacers defense hasn’t stepped up significantly in the playoffs, ranking 12th out of 16 playoff teams at 116.8.
On top of that, Indiana doesn’t exactly defend the zone successfully – an absolute favorite target of Jalen Brunson’s drives.
During the regular season, no team in the NBA allowed more opponent points in the zone than the Indiana Pacers (58.4 per game).
After these initial considerations, I can understand if you want to play the odds of 1.83 in the Betway app for “Knicks win (HC -5.5)”.
However, you should be careful. Indiana had the second-best offensive rating in the entire league in the regular season (120.5) and only finished one of 82 games with “under 100.0” points scored.
The high-speed Pacers’ fast breaks are particularly dangerous and have yielded an average of 16.6 points per game so far.
The Knicks’ defensive rating was also rather below average in the first round (116.9). If you therefore believe “Indiana Over 105.5 points”, you can tackle the odds of 1.83 at Bet365 with this Bet365 coupon.
However, I do not expect an away win for the Pacers in the first game of this series. Jalen Brunson has been on fire, putting up three games in a row with at least 35 points and ten assists in the matchup against the 76ers. Only Oscar Robertson managed that before him!
This confidence will help the Knicks in their first meeting with the Pacers to fill the role of favorites
Basically, the Pacers are not a great defensive team and their series against the injury-riddled Bucks has confirmed that.
Madison Square Garden in New York will be on fire for the start of the conference semifinals, providing the hosts with extra energy during tough stretches.
The biggest beneficiary in my eyes remains Jalen Brunson, who has held the ball in his hands longer than any other player in the playoffs so far.
My Knicks Pacers tip at Bwin therefore falls on the odds of 1.87 for “Jalen Brunson Over 34.5 points”
