Basketball World Cup 2023, Quarterfinals on Tuesday, 05.09.2023
From now on, any further defeat at the FIBA World Cup-2023 will end with ejection from the tournament. Because with the start of the co-phase, the long group phase is finally over.
In a highly anticipated quarterfinal, I used a sports betting app to place an Italy USA tip, which I am confident will hit the bull’s eye.
Nevertheless, I still don’t expect the team I favor in this match to win World Cup gold …
I had already announced it big and wide: The USA would fall sooner or later. Because from the beginning it was clear that the lack of experience at international level would take revenge against top teams at the latest.
Fortunately for the North Americans, they made that 104-110 gaffe in the last group game of the intermediate round and not in the quarterfinals that followed. Otherwise, the hunt for gold would have been declared prematurely over – as it was in 2019!
The Lithuanians, for their part, did everything right and won the duel against the supposed top favorite on the board and in the zone – and that despite the fact that their best player by far, Domantas Sabonis, had to sit out the World Championship as is well known.
Now, of course, the question is whether the North Americans can recover from this defeat. Was this perhaps just the hello wake-up sign that Head Coach Steve Kerr’s troops needed?
While I still think Team USA will not prevail in the battle for gold, their upcoming opponent should be much easier to play against than the recalcitrant Lithuanians before them.
Indeed, the Italians are back in a quarterfinal for the first time this millennium and have also benefited from an extremely favorable tournament schedule that, with the exception of Serbia, didn’t include a single real acid test.
Of course, the “Azzurri” have to be given credit for winning the aforementioned match against Serbia. But apart from that, none of the other three victories over Angola (81:67), the Philippines (90:83) or Puerto Rico (73:57) were really worth talking about.
Rather, the 82-87 loss to the Dominican Republic sticks out negatively in my mind, which at the same time makes me suspect that the southern Europeans lack the necessary consistency to prevail against a strong team like the USA.
But it’s not just a lack of consistency that could put a spanner in their works – there are also deficits in terms of quality compared to the US squad, which is made up exclusively of NBA players.
Simone Fontecchio is the only Italian currently earning his money in the States – with the Utah Jazz, to be precise.
The rest play either for Alba Berlin (Matteo Spagnolo & Gabriele Procida) or in the domestic league.
In my eyes, there are 2.5 teams that can also be dangerous to the USA besides Lithuania – and that’s Spain, Canada and with a little luck the DBB selection.
Italy, however, does not convince me enough. The own field goal rate was not once above 50% and the Azzurri will definitely need accurate shooters against the strong defense of the USA.
Moreover, the Lithuanians’ success over the North Americans was also the product of an outstanding performance by the bench players, who managed to conjure up an unfathomable 61 of the total 110 Baltic points on the board.
The reserves of the southern Europeans, however, are not expected to put in a similar performance on Tuesday. The United States, for their part, can rely on much more quality from the bench during the course of the match.
In the betting markets, meanwhile, the oddsmakers have come up with an assessment that couldn’t be clearer.
According to the Italy USA odds, the North Americans are clearly favored with about 1.07 – perhaps too clearly?
In the end, I opt for a conservative basketball bet in view of these numbers, where I load the NBA pros with a HC deficit of -11.5 points, which they should nevertheless make up without any major problems.
Conclusion: I would not have accepted the bookmaker odds on this game in this lopsided form on any other quarterfinalist. However, this is the first time in 25 years that the Italians have even made it this far.
In doing so, I take the view that despite this deep push by their standards, they still lack the quality of play needed to stop the now rampaging US.
Still, I won’t resort to too much of a handicap bet, even though I think the NBA pros will come out with a healthy dose of anger in their bellies on Tuesday after their shock defeat to Lithuania.
My Italy USA prediction: Tip 2 with HC -11.5.
