NBA 2022/23, on Wednesday, 07.12.2022
As we are given a few days to catch our breath in Qatar during the local 2022 World Cup, this Tuesday is particularly suitable to give some interesting NBA tips to the best.
I’ve come up with a Heat Pistons tip in which I intend to take advantage of a misjudgement by the bookmakers. Because in my opinion, they are giving the home side a bit too much tonight …
Miami Heat is simply a winning team! The Floridians have bounced back impressively from their recent 87-113 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This was followed by four wins in the last five NBA games, which almost made Miami an “over 500 team” again in the standings – which they will probably become next week at the latest if they continue on the winning track.
While I have a positive opinion of the Floridians, I do not share the optimism about the next victory that is currently prevailing on the betting markets immediately before the duel against the Pistons – and there are good reasons for that.
Miami can almost draw on a full complement tonight, as the expected starting five consisting of Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin and Kyle Lowry is qualitatively superior to that of the opponent.
Nevertheless, I have my doubts that the Pistons will be overrun tonight. Detroit may have lost their last three NBA games, but they were able to come away with another respectable win last night against the Grizzlies (112-122).
In fact, some important players such as Marvin Bagley III and Bogdan Bodganovic have recently returned from the team hospital. Moreover, Miami in particular had to struggle mightily in the last direct duels against the Bad Boys.
Miami Heat have won three of the last four direct duels against the “Bad Boys”, but here it is worth taking a closer look!
What’s so special about this one? The gap to the stubborn Pistons was three points in one case and only eight points in the other, which makes it clear once again how close it usually is in matches between these two franchises.
That bookmakers like Bwin still offer me odds of a respectable 1.52 if Indiana loses by less than 12 points, I think is pretty generous given their shared history.
But what’s stopping the best sports bettors when it comes to basketball from trusting the Pistons to beat the Floridians? After all, the away win odds average about 4.00.
In fact, the Illinois State franchise was considered to be going nowhere this season. This seems to be proving true, yet the Bad Boys are capable of extremely strong performances on occasion.
For example, about a fortnight ago they were able to beat the previously outstanding Jazz and just a few days ago they managed an equally surprising 131-125 victory over the strong Mavericks.
The betting shops are currently packed with great free bets, which my colleagues at Wettfreunde.net have of course put to the test. However, I am primarily interested in the Heat Pistons odds on this Tuesday morning.
And indeed: The betting odds are so one-sided that I wouldn’t dream of placing a home win bet on the Floridians. Because the 1.30 offered on average for this is far too low for me personally.
Miami is of course very strong at home and did not win each of its last five NBA home games for nothing.
Still, don’t let that impress you too much. Because four of those victories came by margins of eight goals or less.
Conclusion: The visitors have a lot of great talent and will put together a respectable performance tonight thanks in part to the recently recovered Bojan Bogdanovic and Marvin Bagley III.
Especially since Miami has almost always struggled against this weak team according to experts in recent years – and if at all – then beaten them by an average of five to eight points.
Consequently, I consider the current Heat Pistons odds almost a small gift, as the bookies seem to attach far too much importance to home court.
My Heat Pistons tip: The Pistons win at a handicap of +11.5.
