NBA Conference Finals 2023, Game 4 on Saturday, 10.06.2023
What a game, what a show of force! In fact, I’m convinced Game 3 was the point at which the Heatles finally broke. Because Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray made a clear difference in class that night.
Using the Bwin app, I will place my next Heat Nuggets prediction on the visitors – according to the motto: Never change a winning tip!
No, this team can’t be stopped on the way to the title! Most recently, the guests won Game 3 relatively clearly and showed basketball at its best!
When Nikola Jokic can score a triple-double, that’s bad enough for the opposing team, but when teammate Jamal Murray does the same, a loss against the Nuggets is simply inevitable.
You don’t need to be an NBA prophet to know that if the Floridians don’t find an answer in Game 4, a comeback is no longer possible…
The Nuggets’ problem in Game 2 was their own defence, which allowed too much. But in the following match, the Head Coach made the necessary adjustments to keep Miami away from their own basket.
In any case, the implementation of this plan was a complete success. The Nuggets held the Floridians to just 37% from the field and 17/46 from the zone in their last meeting.
But the Heat’s previous strength in the 2023 NBA Play-offs – consistently converting threes – was also stopped.
Miami got a lot of pressure on every shot attempt from beyond the arc – and the 3s quota was correspondingly meagre in the end: 11 of 35.
To come back to the dominance of the Nuggets, which especially came from the duo Jokic/Murray: This one was unprecedented.
It was the first time in the history of the NBA (not only in the play-offs) that two players of the same team could achieve a 30-point triple-double.
As a result, the Nuggets were able to exploit their already well-known size advantages to such an extent that they were clearly ahead in the rebounds category by 58 to 33, for example.
Whoever catches 22 more defensive rebounds than their opponents and scores 26 more points from the paint usually can’t lose a basketball game.
Consequently, I strongly expect that if the Nuggets’ head coach gives his men the defensive-oriented march again, Floridians will now be clearly beaten again.
There was hardly any impetus from the Floridians’ bench in Game 3 anyway and apart from Jimmy Butler (28), Bam Adebayo (22) and Caleb Martin (10), no Heat player was able to score in double figures. There was far too little here to crack the Nuggets’ solid defence!
It’s no longer a secret that the home side is struggling and can’t seem to find a way to compensate for their size disadvantage against the Nuggets’ long guns.
Accordingly, the sports betting providers agree with the Heat Nuggets odds that the guests will also win Game 4, which would certainly amount to a preliminary decision.
In the first away game of the Nuggets in this series, the odds were still a little higher, but after the demonstration of power in Game 4, they have now settled at values around 1.65 at most providers.
Accordingly, the Floridians’ win odds have risen in recent days and now stand at around 2.35.
Miami always has the potential to surprise, but in Game 1 & 2 the MIA odds were still around 4.00 and thus made a risk bet much more interesting than is currently the case.
Conclusion: The Nuggets are just too big, too ripped off and too disciplined to let Miami beat them.
For their part, the Floridians still can’t manage to gain permanent access to the opponent’s half-court and still can’t find a means to take Nikola Jokic out of the game.
The Serbian is certainly not the only problem for the home side, as Jamal Murray is also getting more and more involved. As things stand right now, I’d be very surprised if DEN doesn’t go up 3-1 in Game 4.
My Heat Nuggets tip: Denver wins!
