Basketball World Cup 2023, Group E on Friday, 25.08.2023
The FIBA World Cup 2023 starts already on Friday and right on the 1st day of competition the DBB selection is in demand.
However, the opening game my Germany Japan tip should be more like a challenging test game for the team of national coach Gordon Herbert. The host have namely just in time for the start of the tournament cancellations and injuries considerably weakened.
2019 Germany surprisingly won the bronze medal. Whether there will be a similarly deep tournament push this time around depends on a number of factors, but first impressions are encouraging.
After all, the squad has a good balance! With Dennis Schröder, the team has even been able to bring along an ingenious NBA star for the build-up to the game, who has two great starting partners at the basket in Franz Wagner and Moritz Wagner of the Orlando Magic.
Daniel Theis of the Indiana Pacers should also do a good job on the boards with his 2.04. Only the recent injury to Justus Hollatz thus somewhat overshadows what promises to be an auspicious World Cup start in prime time (local time, 14:10 CET) ).
In a squad comparison, the Japanese reveal the biggest deficits. On the board, they lack a strong, bulky center who also has the necessary playmaking quality to take on the Germans’ long stretchers.
Meanwhile, the Asians’ most prominent player, Rui Hachimura, has decided to sit out the World Cup. That alone will massively limit the underdog’s ability to set up play in an orderly fashion.
The hosts will start with a squad recruited almost exclusively from players under contract in their domestic league. There is no squad depth like the DBB team, so I expect the game to be pretty one-sided.
When Gavin Edwards still played for the Japanese, they could at least field a burly center. But since his retirement from the national team, there’s been a gaping hole at that position.
How hard the Asians can be tattered when they have to deal with a combination of nimble forwards and a dominant center was shown in the last test game against Slovenia, which was clearly lost with 68:103.
From the Germans, on the other hand, I honestly expect a similarly dominant performance on Friday as that of Luka Doncic & Co – both because of the superiority on the said key positions and because of the last performances of the DBB itself.
The two test games on the way to the FIBA World Cup must namely be assessed as positive, although the 84:71 victory over Greece would have been even more impressive if Giannis Antetokounmpo had been in the S5 for the Hellenes.
The DBB team then lost to the USA 91:99, but even here you have to applaud them. After all, the USA are the USA and the fighting performance of the Herbert squad must be praised in any case.
The difference in the end was made by Anthony Edwards, who scored 34 points, more than twice as many as the second and third best scorers of the game combined – Franz Wagner (17) and Tyrese Haliburton (16) to be precise.
However, the Japanese do not even have a player like the one from the Timberwolves, who could not be controlled by the DBB selection.
A call of the Germany Japan odds by means of a sports betting app made me look gloomy. Because the German betting providers don’t seem to want to make it that easy for me.
A victory of the DBB selection is so obvious that an almost symbolic betting odds of about 1.04 was called here.
At this point, I would necessarily advise a handicap bet of -19.5 points. Because the Germans should be able to easily take advantage of the mismatch on the five to play out a difference of two-dozen points here.
Summary: Germany will start this tournament with a win, there is no doubt about that.
The only question I have is just how high that victory will ultimately be. Given the clear size advantage on the board, my guess is a difference of around two dozen points.
The Japanese will be without by far their best player, while the Germans will have the right tools in the form of the Wagner brothers and Schröder to give the hosts no chance at all.
My Germany Japan forecast: Victory DBB with HC -19.5.
