Basketball Olympics, group stage, Friday, 02.08.2024, 21:00
A first indication of my decision right away: In the last group game of the overrated hosts alone, the bookmakers were prepared to offer you FRA win odds of just 1.01 on average – and yet the French had to go into overtime!
With less than a minute on the clock and a 4-point lead for the Japanese, I switched over in the belief that the first big surprise of this tournament was finally sealed.
Shortly afterwards, I found out via the Bet365 app that the French had managed “SOMEHOW” to pull their heads out of the noose and successfully defeat the crass underdogs in overtime after all.
However, the host’s fans will not be satisfied. I was left speechless (in a negative sense) by what I had seen from “Les Bleus” up to that point.
Emblematic of the messed-up evening from the French point of view: shortly before the end, Batum ran into the clumsy Gobert and suffered a bloody nose, which had to be treated for several minutes
I find the decision of many bookmakers to offer almost even France-Germany odds surprising, if not downright shocking.
After all, while the French have dropped off enormously compared to their opening game against Brazil, the DBB team showed a clear improvement in performance after beating the Asians 97:77.
In the 86:73 victory over Brazil – for which I was able to throw you a successful Brazil Germany betting tip in alley-oop style – the team showed why they were quite rightly crowned basketball world champions for the first time last fall.
As the Olympic commentator said so well in the livestream: “This is the best German basketball team of all time!”
I am convinced that one of the reasons why the bookmakers have called out relatively even France-Germany odds is because the hosts naturally enjoy a special bonus.
After all, the vociferous support of the home fans has already helped the national rugby team to the gold medal and made it easier for the men’s and women’s national soccer teams to reach the knockout phase.
However, in my opinion, the quality gap that currently separates the Germans from the French is simply too great to be bridged by support from the stands alone.
Don’t be fooled by the 66:90 defeat of the world champions on July 6 in a test match against their upcoming opponents, as it happened without the involvement of the Wagner brothers.
However, the Orlando Magic’s congenial duo appeared again just two days later in the rematch and Germany promptly got their revenge with a 70:65 win over the French.
I consider this factor to be decisive in justifying my France Germany betting tip. Franz Wagner’s exceptional qualities at the board and his 17 points against Brazil in particular make him the best player on the DBB team at the moment
Rudy Gobert is, of course, someone who can certainly compete with the Wagner brothers in terms of size, at least in theory.
But what I saw of the Frenchman against the Japanese doesn’t quite live up to the claim of being one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. Germany is also a very well-coordinated team, whereas the hosts are less so!
The French may have grabbed 49 rebounds against Japan, but their 12 turnovers and field goal rate of just 42.5% show that their playmaking rarely got them into good finishing positions
When I consider how well Germany performed defensively in the second group game, it’s easy to imagine that more avoidable mistakes will creep into the hosts’ build-up play on Friday.
I could and probably should advise you to place a handicap bet. After all, the DBB team is perfectly capable of using the momentum from the convincing Brazil game to put at least 7 points between themselves and the weakening French team.
However, I have a frugal disposition and the France-Germany odds for a simple win for the world champions at around 1.57 are already high enough that I’m reluctant to go too far
Conclusion: France’s performance against Japan was simply subterranean.
I therefore expect a strong reaction from the hosts, but I still find it hard to imagine that they could beat the world champions.
Germany simply look much better coordinated and are also capable of stepping up a gear if necessary. On the other hand, I don’t think FRA are capable of a similar increase in their own performance level at the moment.
My France Germany tip therefore assumes a win for the world champions
