BBL semi-final, Game 3 on Sunday, 02.06.2024
In my opinion, value bet hunters have an excellent opportunity on Sunday afternoon to place one or two promising basketball bets in addition to lucrative free bets on the European Championship.
I have a strong suspicion that the bookmakers are overestimating the Niners after their opening win. In any case, my Chemnitz Alba Berlin betting tip is that if the “Albatrosses” can build on their success in Game 2, it will be another one-sided affair
At one point, there were worries that the dream final between Bayern and Alba Berlin that many were expecting might not take place.
After all, the team from Chemnitz secured a 95:82 opening victory in their semi-final series against the “Albatrosses”, which nobody saw coming in such a clear manner – least of all the European Championship betting providers.
However, it only took the home side 24 hours to live up to their role as favorites and put the underdogs in their place. The Niners were reprimanded for their affront in Game 2 with an 86:64 victory
For Game 2: Alba got off to a brilliant start, obviously keen to quickly forget the defeat in the first game. Berlin scored its first twelve points exclusively with threes and went 12:4 (5th minute) in front.
Chemnitz appeared surprised and got involved in many one-on-one duels, but did not find its usual rhythm. A number of fouls on Kevin Yebo, which led to free throws and points, gave the Niners some composure and they fought their way back into the game from then on.
Despite Alba’s continuous threes and better rebounding compared to the first game, Chemnitz continued to find ways to score.
The duel between Yebo and Louis Olinde in particular shaped the game. Both, the top scorers in the first half, repeatedly went head-to-head and gave each other nothing.
Olinde had scored 13 points at the break, Yebo twelve. Up until then, the Berliners looked more committed and played with energy and pace. However, the Niners kept at it and when Berlin’s last shot missed before half-time, Jeff Garrett pulled Chemnitz back to within eight points at the break.
However, Alba then really turned on the heat in the third quarter and displayed everything it had missed in the opening encounter: Dunkings, alley-oops and no-look passes in abundance! Chemnitz tried to hold out, but reached its limits.
The game was actually already decided by the time it went into the final quarter with a 15-point difference.
Alba Berlin knew how to assert itself more at the board on Friday and that’s why I favor the home side in Game 3.
They won the rebounding duel by 50:32, which should give you an idea of how many second-chance points they automatically scored as a result.
Anyone who catches 18 offensive rebounds (!) at the opponent’s board usually cannot lose a basketball game.
Another worrying aspect from the Niners’ perspective was the negative trend in their own point production inside the perimeter.
With Chemnitz’s field goal percentage at just 34.9%, Alba Berlin dominated the half-court in a way that had already been expected of them in the opening game. And in a way that allows no other conclusion than the following:
If Alba Berlin, with Yanni Wetzell and Malte Delow under the hoop, once again clears everything, Chemnitz will find it difficult to win any game at all from Sunday onwards.
At this point, I also think the current Chemnitz Alba Berlin odds of the bookmakers for Game 3 are excellent, as they couldn’t be more balanced at 1.90 each.
There is a reason for that, as the Niners are an internationally experienced team that also has the important home court advantage. But if the Capitals play like they did in Game 2 on Sunday, I think it will be another one-sided affair
Conclusion: It’s unbelievable how many offensive rebounds the Albatrosses grabbed on Friday. If the Niners are no longer able to counter them physically under the board, Game 3 will inevitably go to the club from the capital.
The Saxons will have to come up with something to prevent Yanni Wetzell from grabbing rebounds. Louis Olinde, meanwhile, also poses a major problem for Chemnitz’s defense.
Since the momentum has shifted back to the capital’s side after Friday and the bookmakers expect 50:50 odds, it’s easy for me to mark a win for the stronger Albatrosses on my betting slip
